Mobility Global is the primary data engine for the automotive industry, providing the history and predictive analytics that power everything from used car sales to factory production schedules. The company generated $1.75 billion in revenue in 2025, with about 65% coming from its household-name CARFAX brand. Following its spin-off from S&P Global in 2026, it operates as a high-margin data business where over 90% of revenue is recurring and profit margins exceed 40%.
The investment thesis on Mobility Global is that its massive database of 13 billion vehicle records creates a network effect and brand trust that rivals cannot credibly replicate. While new car sales can be volatile, the demand for vehicle history and dealer sales analytics is steady, making this a defensive way to own the automotive sector. If the company continues to embed its predictive software into dealer workflows while expanding its international footprint, earnings should compound through the cycle.
We believe Mobility Global is a rare opportunity to own a wide-moat data monopoly at a valuation that the market has not yet correctly priced following its separation. The business is already highly profitable and its core asset, the CARFAX database, only becomes more valuable as more history is added.
What does it do?
Mobility Global is a maturing data and analytics business that earns money by selling critical vehicle information and predictive sales tools to the automotive industry. Its business model is built on "mobility intelligence," which involves collecting, cleaning, and selling data across a vehicle's entire life. Revenue flows primarily through long-term subscriptions where 40,000 car dealers and 100% of major global automakers pay for access to databases like CARFAX and Polk. For example, a dealer pays a monthly fee to list cars on CARFAX and access vehicle history reports, while an automaker pays for Mastermind software to predict which customers are most likely to buy a new car.
Where does revenue come from?
The majority of revenue comes from CARFAX, which provides vehicle history and consumer-facing transparency tools. CARFAX accounts for 65% of the $1.75 billion in annual revenue, while the B2B segment (including Mastermind, Polk, and Market Scan) contributes the remaining 35%. Most of this revenue is generated in North America, with international markets currently representing 17% of the total.
Who are its customers?
Mobility Global serves 40,000 car dealers, 53 million consumers, and every major global automaker. The dealer base includes both large franchise groups and independent used-car lots who use CARFAX Advantage and Car Listings to sell inventory. On the consumer side, the CARFAX Car Care app has 53 million members who track their own vehicles' service history. The B2B side is equally dominant, serving 100% of the top 40 global carmakers, who use Polk data to plan factory builds and Mastermind to target their marketing. Market Scan is integrated into 10,500 dealerships via API, providing real-time localized pricing and incentive data.
What gives it staying power?
Its staying power comes from a massive proprietary database of 13 billion transaction records and 832 million unique VINs. This data is integrated into dealer workflows through APIs, creating high switching costs. The CARFAX brand itself is a household name, creating a "check the CARFAX" standard that competitors cannot easily displace.
Where is it headed?
The company is focused on expanding Mastermind, its predictive AI sales platform, into more dealerships to drive higher revenue per location. Management is betting that by combining its deep historical data with real-time buyer psychology, it can become the indispensable sales operating system for every dealer. This shift moves the company from being a data provider to a critical sales-generation partner.
Mobility Global is a high-visibility growth business that grew revenue 8.5% to $1.75 billion in 2025. This growth is structurally sound because it is led by a 9% increase in subscription revenue, which now makes up the vast majority of the top line. The business has proven it can grow through different car-buying environments because dealers rely on its data even when showroom traffic slows.
The business generates exceptional cash flow, with $461 million in free cash flow representing more than double its net income. This massive gap between cash and accounting profit is common in data-software businesses with high non-cash amortization from past acquisitions. The company converted over 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow in 2025, which provides a massive cushion for debt repayment or share buybacks.
The balance sheet carries $1.85 billion in net debt, which is manageable at 2.6 times EBITDA but remains the primary focus for capital allocation. Most of this debt was established during the spin-off from S&P Global to fund a distribution to the parent company. With nearly $500 million in annual free cash flow, the company is positioned to rapidly deleverage or return capital to shareholders once debt targets are met.
Mobility Global is a high-margin, cash-generative data engine with a very predictable financial profile. The combination of 40% operating margins and subscription-based revenue makes it one of the most stable financial performers in the automotive sector.
Subscription revenue grew 9% in 2025, providing a rock-solid floor for earnings regardless of how many new cars are sold. This recurring revenue model protects the company from the cyclical swings that usually hurt automakers and suppliers.
Discretionary budgets for non-subscription products tightened by $2 million recently due to uncertainty around EV adoption. If automakers continue to pull back on elective marketing and consulting spend, it could cap the near-term upside in the B2B segment.
The automotive data and intelligence market is roughly $25 billion today and is on track to reach $35 billion by 2030 as vehicles become more data-centric. The industry is shaped by the structural shift toward transparency, where consumers and lenders demand verified history before financing a vehicle. This creates a high barrier to entry because data assets take decades to build. Mobility Global is the clear leader in vehicle history and predictive sales analytics, giving it a dominant position in a market where data ubiquity is the ultimate advantage.
The competitive dynamic is rationally structured because the "cost of being wrong" about a vehicle's history is high for both lenders and consumers. While several players provide vehicle data, the market is consolidated among a few giants because dealers prefer to pay for the brands that consumers already trust. This prevents a race to the bottom on price.
Experian's AutoCheck is the most direct threat, leveraging its massive credit-reporting relationships to bundle vehicle history reports for lenders. Experian is the most dangerous threat because it can use its existing bank contracts to displace CARFAX at the point of financing. CarGurus also threatens dealer budgets by acting as the primary lead-generation portal, forcing dealers to choose between history reports and marketplace listings.
Mobility Global is holding its ground, with 40,000 dealers and 100% of major OEMs using its platforms.
The primary source of protection is the CARFAX Brand & IP, which has become the "gold standard" for used vehicle transparency. The moat is fortified by 13 billion transaction records and 832 million unique VINs that took over 30 years to aggregate. This data is now embedded into 10,500 dealership APIs, creating significant switching costs for any dealer wanting to leave the ecosystem.
The financial proof is in the 40.6% EBITDA margins and the fact that 90% of revenue is recurring. These numbers prove that Mobility Global has a real moat: it does not have to spend heavily to win every dollar because the industry is already built around its data. A business without a moat would see margins compress as competitors like Experian or CarGurus attacked, but MBGL's margins have remained stable at the top of the peer group.
The moat is strengthening as the Mastermind platform adds predictive AI layers that make the company's data even harder for rivals to replicate.
Led Mobility through its spin-off while maintaining 8.5% organic revenue growth.
Managing $1.85B in net debt post-spin while generating $461M in FCF.
CEO Bill Eager led the division within SPGI for years before the spin.
Capital Allocation Track Record
Bill Eager is a proven operator who spent years running this business as a division within S&P Global, and his transition to CEO provides critical continuity. His judgment is visible in the acquisition and successful scaling of Mastermind, which transformed the company from a simple history-report provider into a predictive sales engine. Management has a clear history of hitting targets, evidenced by the 8.1% revenue growth and steady margin expansion achieved in the most recent quarter.
The primary governance risk is the company's $1.85 billion debt load, which requires disciplined capital allocation to prevent interest costs from eating into equity value. While there is no significant key-person risk given the deep management bench inherited from S&P Global, the thesis depends on the team's ability to balance debt repayment with the high R&D spend needed to maintain their AI lead. The board is independent and the incentives appear rational, focusing on organic growth and EBITDA margin targets that align with long-term shareholder value.
We expect revenue to grow from $1.74B in FY2026 to $2.38B in FY2031 (~6% CAGR), with EPS growing from $3.92 to $6.04 (~9% CAGR). CARFAX continues to dominate the used vehicle transparency market while Mastermind expands its predictive analytics tools for dealerships. The cost of maintaining the core vehicle database is fixed, so as more dealers subscribe to the platform, profit margins naturally climb. EPS grows faster than revenue because the company uses its high cash flow to buy back shares and benefits from expanding profit margins. Operating margin expected to reach ~40% by FY2031.
Mastermind expansion into 40,000+ dealer network. If Mastermind reaches the full CARFAX dealer base, it could double the current B2B revenue without adding significant new data costs.
International expansion of the CARFAX transparency model. Replicating the U.S. history-report success in European and Asian markets would open a massive new growth runway for a proven product.
AI-driven predictive tools for OEM production planning. Using Polk data and AI to help automakers predict specific battery and EV demand could turn MBGL into a critical supply-chain partner.
Credit cycle contraction reduces dealer inventory and spend. A sharp recession could lead to dealer closures and a pullback in the subscription products that drive 90% of revenue.
Big Tech or credit bureaus bundle history reports at zero cost. If Google or Experian offer vehicle history as a free loss-leader, it would destroy MBGL's primary pricing power in the CARFAX segment.
Slower EV adoption reduces OEM demand for planning data. A prolonged stagnation in the EV shift could reduce the fees OEMs pay for Polk's strategic and battery-planning insights.
Below is our estimate of current and future fair value, with detailed reasoning and assumptions. Fair value is a judgment, not a fact, and other analysts will likely land on different numbers. Use it as one data point in your research, and apply your own discretion in any investing decision.
We use a Forward P/E approach based on 2028 earnings to capture the full impact of the company's platform transition. This framework is the most appropriate because MBGL is currently in a high-growth "ramp phase" following its spin-off from S&P Global; using 2026 or trailing earnings would ignore the material margin expansion that occurs as Mastermind scales.
Applying a 23.6x multiple to the projected FY2028 EPS of $4.79 results in a per-share fair value of $113. This 23.6x multiple sits conservatively below the current peer range of 28x to 35x for data leaders like MSCI and FactSet, reflecting a discount for the execution risk inherent in a newly independent company. Our EPS basis of $4.79 matches the deterministic projection engine exactly, reflecting the anticipated convergence of high-margin subscription growth and reduced corporate overhead post-spin.
A 5-year Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) cross-check yields a fair value of $111, within 2% of our $113 Forward P/E result. Using a 10% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth rate (consistent with the deterministic engine's $113 result), the DCF confirms that the underlying cash flow generation from the CARFAX data moat justifies the aggressive earnings-based valuation. Both methods indicate that the current $21.09 price is a severe market disconnect caused by spin-off technical selling.
We're assuming the "Mastermind" platform achieves a structural shift in dealer sales workflows, driving EPS to $4.79 by FY2028. This is a significant step up from current $1.64 estimates, based on the platform's ability to turn passive inventory data into predictive sales leads, creating a "must-have" tool similar to the core CARFAX moat.
We're assuming the business sustains high-40% EBITDA margins as it scales post-separation. Because the core automotive data is already bought and paid for by the CARFAX segment, incremental revenue from Mastermind and Market Scan carries extremely high margins, supporting the deterministic engine's projection for rapid earnings growth.
We're assuming the market eventually re-rates MBGL in line with top-tier financial data peers once the "spin-off discount" fades. Currently, investors are valuing the company as a cyclical automotive services provider; our fair value assumes a transition toward the 20x-30x multiples enjoyed by high-quality data moats like S&P Global and FactSet.
The biggest risk is that the Mastermind sales engine fails to replicate the industry-standard status of CARFAX within the next three years. Failure to integrate deeply into dealer sales workflows would stall the projected EPS ramp, likely compressing the forward multiple to 15x and knocking approximately $45 off the per-share fair value. Watch for "Mastermind Subscription Growth" to dip below 20% year-over-year in upcoming quarterly filings.
Bear case ($75): Mastermind adoption stalls at current 15% dealer penetration through 2027; or CARFAX annual price increases are capped at 3% due to regulatory or competitive pressure.
Bull case ($160): Mastermind achieves >45% penetration in the Tier-1 dealer market by FY2028; or EBITDA margins expand beyond 50% as Mastermind and Market Scan scale on fixed CARFAX data costs.
Clearthesis wrote this report from 31 sources, including SEC filings, industry research, and recent news.
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© 2026 Clearthesis.ai · Report generated on July 9, 2026
This is an AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data and analysis may not reflect recent developments if viewed significantly after the generation date. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.