Sportradar is worth $21 per share, representing a 44% potential return as the company converts its dominant sports data moat and high customer retention into consistent earnings growth following the integration of recent acquisitions.
Below is our estimate of current and future fair value, with detailed reasoning and assumptions. Fair value is a judgment, not a fact, and other analysts will likely land on different numbers. Use it as one data point in your research, and apply your own discretion in any investing decision.
We use a Forward P/E approach based on next year's earnings (FY+1). This framework fits Sportradar because the company has moved past its early-stage losses and is now demonstrating a clear path to GAAP profitability; earnings power is the most reliable signal for a business with high recurring subscription revenue.
An estimated FY2027 EPS of $0.55 multiplied by a 38x multiple gives a per-share fair value of $21. A 38x multiple sits at the midpoint of the application software peer group (30x-45x) and is justified by Sportradar's 108% retention rate and its unique data moat with 400 sports leagues. We used the $0.55 EPS basis as a conservative midpoint of the $0.39 to $0.67 range projected by analysts for the next fiscal year.
A Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow (P/FCF) cross-check produces a fair value of $20 — within 5% of our $21 P/E-based answer, confirming the result. Applying a 25x multiple to the trailing $0.79 FCF per share (a 4% FCF yield) reflects a business growing at a low-double-digit clip with an asset-light model. Since the market currently prices Sportradar at only 18.4x FCF (a 6% growth expectation), our $21 target assumes the market eventually rewards the company for its superior 11-13% organic growth profile.
We're assuming Sportradar maintains a Customer Net Retention Rate (NRR) above 105% through FY2027. The company reported 108% in Q1 2026, and its position as the "trusted partner" for major global leagues creates high switching costs for betting operators who rely on their low-latency data feeds.
We're assuming the newly launched Playradar iGaming brand becomes a material margin contributor by 2027. By combining live sports data with casino content, Sportradar is moving up the value chain from a pure data wholesaler to a high-margin software provider, which supports the necessary multiple expansion.
We're assuming the material weakness in financial controls mentioned in the 10-K is remediated without restatement. While a governance red flag, the company's $250 million share repurchase program suggests management and the board believe current cash flows are real and the balance sheet is robust.
The biggest risk is the escalating cost of exclusive sports data rights from major leagues like the NBA, NHL, and ATP. If Sportradar cannot pass these rising license fees through to bookmakers, it would compress operating margins from the expected 15% toward 8%, knocking roughly $7 off the per-share fair value. Watch the "purchased services" expense line relative to revenue growth in upcoming annual reports.
Bear case ($15): Customer Net Retention Rate (NRR) drops below 100% for two consecutive quarters; or Operating margins fail to expand above 8% due to escalating sports rights renewal costs.
Bull case ($29): Playradar iGaming brand captures >10% of the UK and North American casino-content market by FY2028; or US segment revenue growth accelerates above 30% as prediction markets and live-betting penetration deepen.
Clearthesis wrote this report from 45 sources, including SEC filings, analyst estimates, industry research, and recent news.
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© 2026 Clearthesis.ai · Report generated on August 2, 2026
This is an AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Data and analysis may not reflect recent developments if viewed significantly after the generation date. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.