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AA

AlcoaAA

$47.44
Updated Aug 6, 2026
Quality Score
2.7
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Why Alcoa stock moved?

Updated Aug 6 at 2:18pm ET.

$47.44
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What's happening with the stock

Alcoa is up about 1 percent today, its third straight day of gains, and has now won back almost all of its losses from the past month. We think this is mostly the stock finding its footing after a record revenue report, with a small extra boost from rising oil prices that often lift energy-heavy metal producers.

Our view

Alcoa is bringing in record revenue and has simplified its business by buying out its main partner. If you already own it, there is no reason to let the typical swings of the aluminum market shake you, so just sit tight.

Read full thesis on Alcoa

Latest Alcoa updates

Follow Alcoa to never miss an important update.

AA
Macro & policyWorth watching
Aug 6

Oil prices rise on Middle East shipping concerns

Oil prices jumped following news of a draft plan from Iran that would place new conditions on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a vital path for global energy supplies.

Energy is one of the largest costs for an aluminum producer like Alcoa. Smelting, the process of turning raw ore into finished metal, requires massive amounts of electricity. If energy prices stay high, it leaves the company with less profit on every ton of aluminum it sells.

Source: CNBC

AA
Company newsFor the record
Jul 30

Quarterly dividend set at 10 cents per share

The company will pay its regular quarterly dividend of 10 cents per share to stockholders of record as of August 11. This is a routine payment and matches what the company has paid in recent quarters. It shows the business is bringing in enough cash to continue its plan of returning some money to owners.

Source: Business Wire

AA
Analyst price updateFor the record
Jul 22

Argus Research lowers its target to $55

Argus Research analysts reduced their price target for the stock to $55, down from a previous target of $73. Despite the lower target, the firm kept its Buy rating, suggesting they still believe the stock is worth more than its current price of about $48.

This kind of adjustment often happens after a company shares its latest results or outlook. Analysts may be accounting for lower production targets or shifts in the global price of aluminum while still liking the company's overall direction.

Source: Argus Research

AA
EarningsFor the record
Jul 16

Record revenue of $4 billion in the second quarter

The company reported record quarterly revenue of nearly 4 billion dollars, a 24 percent jump from the previous quarter. While the top line was strong, adjusted earnings of $2.12 per share came in just under the $2.25 that Wall Street analysts were looking for. The business also announced it is buying interests in several mining and refining assets from South32 Limited.

The results show a company that is successfully growing its scale, but also facing some production hurdles. Management lowered its full-year outlook for alumina, the material used to make aluminum, by about 250,000 tons. For long-term owners, the focus remains on whether the company can successfully integrate its recent acquisitions to lower its overall costs.

See the full quarter, and how our tracked metrics did

Source: 8-K filing

AA
ProductPositive
Jul 14

New gallium plant approved in Western Australia

The company reached a final decision to build a gallium production plant at its existing refinery in Western Australia. The project is backed by the governments of Australia, Japan, and the United States. Gallium is a critical mineral used in semiconductors and electronics.

This move helps the company diversify its business beyond just aluminum. By using its existing refining process to extract other valuable minerals, it can create a new source of income from the same raw materials it already mines. It also strengthens the company's ties with major governments looking to secure supplies of essential technology materials.

Source: WSJ

Alcoa analyst price targets

Analysts recently adjusted their outlooks following the company's second-quarter earnings report. Most analysts, 23 of 42, rate the stock a buy, and the average target price of $66 suggests a 38% increase from today's price.

Average target$65.50+38%vs $47.44 today
TodayAvg price
Low $53High $75
Buy42 analysts
1Bearish
18Neutral
23Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Argus Research
Buy
$73→$55
7/22/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$71→$72
7/9/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$53
7/8/2026
RBC Capital
—
$70
7/1/2026
UBS
Buy
$80→$68
6/30/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$79
6/11/2026
UBS
Buy
$80
5/22/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$70
5/7/2026
Argus Research
Buy
$67→$73
4/27/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$65→$75
4/9/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$80
4/8/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$68
3/12/2026

Alcoa earnings

The company has a habit of beating expectations, though it has fallen slightly short in the last two quarters. It is growing fast, with revenue up about 31 percent over last year.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$-0.20$1.05$2.31Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jul '26nextOct '26

Alcoa past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$2.25$2.12-5.8%
Revenue$3.99B$3.97B-0.6%

Key highlights

  • Record revenue results: Revenue reached a record $4 billion this quarter, a 24% increase from the previous three months, driven by much higher aluminum prices and a 18% jump in aluminum shipments.
  • Aluminum prices surging: The average price Alcoa received for its aluminum rose to $4,752 per metric ton, a significant increase from $4,209 last quarter and more than double the $2,200 level seen a year ago.
  • Alumina production struggles: Production of alumina, the raw material used to make aluminum, fell 6% to 2.2 million metric tons because of gas supply disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle in Australia.
  • Major acquisition announced: Alcoa agreed to pay $4.1 billion to buy the interests in a group of mining and refining assets known as AliGroup, a move intended to strengthen its position as a dedicated producer of raw metals.
  • Alumina outlook lowered: Management cut its full year production target for alumina to between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons, down from the previous goal by as much as 300,000 tons due to the weather issues in Australia.
  • Strong cash generation: The company generated $422 million in free cash flow, which is the cash left over after paying for operations and equipment, allowing it to pay off $219 million in debt early.

Our take: A strong quarter that effectively turned high market prices for aluminum into record sales. While weather disruptions hurt refining output in Australia, the company is using its $1.4 billion cash pile to fund a massive $4.1 billion acquisition. This aggressive move to expand production capacity reinforces the long term case for Alcoa as a dominant commodity leader.

Alcoa’s next earnings date

Q3 2026
OCT
21
Expectation
EPS$1.56
Revenue$3.85B
AUG
11
Dividend payday
  • Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Staying above 20% during periods of stable aluminum prices
22.7% in Q2 2026
Aluminum Realized Price
Average price staying above $2,500 per metric ton
$4,752 per ton in Q2 2026
Alumina Cost of Production
Decreasing by at least 5% over the next two years
$368 per ton in Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow
Remaining positive for four consecutive quarters
$422 million in Q2 2026

More Alcoa coverage from around the web

Alcoa Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

Business Wire · Press release · Jul 30

Alcoa Corporation (AA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Jul 16

Alcoa Cuts Full-Year Alumina Guidance, Posts Higher Second-Quarter Profit

WSJ · Jul 16

Alcoa Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

Business Wire · Press release · Jul 16

Alcoa greenlights Australia gallium plant with US, Japan and domestic backing

Reuters · Jul 14

Alcoa Receives International Approval for Gallium Production Project in Australia

WSJ · Jul 14

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