American Airlines fell about 2 percent today, its first down day after a week of gains, and sits about 4 percent below its July high. This looks like it is mostly about oil prices rising on Middle East shipping concerns, which makes jet fuel more expensive and squeezes airline profits.
Our view
Record revenue shows people are flying in huge numbers, but high fuel costs and a large debt pile make the path to higher profits a slow one. If you already own it, there is nothing to do but sit tight while the company works to pay down its debt.
Oil prices climbed following reports of a draft plan from Iran that would place new conditions on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global energy supplies. Any disruption in this region tends to push up the cost of crude oil.
This matters for American Airlines because fuel is one of its largest expenses. When oil prices rise, it immediately increases the cost of jet fuel, which can quickly eat into the company's profits if it cannot raise ticket prices fast enough to compensate.
First commercial flight using low-carbon electrofuel
American Airlines and Infinium completed a milestone flight using electro-sustainable aviation fuel, or eSAF. This fuel is made by combining waste carbon dioxide with renewable energy, offering a way to power planes with far lower emissions than traditional jet fuel. While this is just one flight, it shows the company is testing the real-world use of alternative fuels. For a business that is highly sensitive to the price and environmental impact of traditional fuel, proving these technologies work is a necessary step toward long-term sustainability.
The updated Citi / AAdvantage Executive card now includes up to $2,300 in value through airport lounge access and new lifestyle perks. These changes are designed to encourage more spending and deeper loyalty from frequent travelers.
This is a key part of the company's strategy to grow its loyalty program, which earns high-margin fees from credit card partners. Getting more people to use these cards provides a steady stream of cash that is less volatile than selling individual plane tickets.
Boeing narrowly beat out its rival Airbus in total orders at the Farnborough Airshow. This suggests that major airlines are still willing to commit to Boeing's planes as the manufacturer works through its production and leadership changes. As a major operator of Boeing aircraft, American Airlines relies on a healthy supply chain to grow its fleet and add more premium seats. While this doesn't change American's current operations, it is a sign that its primary plane supplier is maintaining its footing in the market.
LegalFor the record
Jul 24
Government to offer rebates for plane retrofits
The Federal Aviation Administration is requiring airlines to update their planes by 2030 to prevent interference from new wireless signals. To help cover the costs, the government is offering $2.2 billion in rebates to the industry. While American Airlines will have to spend money on these upgrades, the rebates should help limit the financial hit. This is a long-term safety requirement that the company has several years to complete.
Analysts are currently divided on American Airlines, with a flurry of mixed rating updates occurring throughout July. Seventeen of the 38 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average price target of $20 suggests a 24% upside.
Average target$19.90+24%vs $16.03 today
TodayAvg price
Low $13High $25
Hold38 analysts
3Bearish
18Neutral
17Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$19.50→$19
7/24/2026
Goldman Sachs
Sell
$15→$13
7/24/2026
Susquehanna
Positive
$16→$25
7/7/2026
Melius Research
Hold
$19
7/7/2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
—
$20→$24
7/2/2026
Bernstein
Market Outperform
$20→$23
7/1/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$16→$19
6/25/2026
Jefferies
Hold
$15
6/16/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$20→$24
6/1/2026
UBS
Buy
$18
5/26/2026
Susquehanna
Positive
$17→$16
4/24/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$12→$13.50
4/24/2026
American Airlines earnings
American has cleared the bar set by analysts in seven of the last eight quarters. This suggests management is doing a good job of managing expectations even as fuel costs fluctuate.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
American Airlines past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.03
$0.15
+400.0%
Revenue
$16.70B
$16.73B
+0.2%
Key highlights
Record quarterly revenue: The company reached its highest quarterly revenue ever at $16.7 billion, a 16.3% increase from last year, as demand for both domestic and international travel remained strong. This growth was led by a 15.1% rise in unit revenue for flights across the Pacific and a 10.6% increase in the domestic business.
Corporate travel rebounding: Managed corporate revenue, which tracks sales to business travelers, jumped 26% compared to the same time last year. This marks the fifth quarter in a row of double-digit growth in this category, helping the airline offset rising costs elsewhere.
Premium cabin expansion: Revenue from premium seats grew 13.4% year over year, significantly outperforming the 8.8% growth seen in the standard main cabin. The airline is leaning into this trend by adding more luxury seating through retrofits and new aircraft deliveries, planning to offer more premium seats this summer than any other carrier.
Fuel costs surging: The amount spent on aircraft fuel and taxes rose 83.3% to $4.88 billion, a massive $2.2 billion increase over last year. While higher ticket prices helped the company recover nearly half of that extra cost, the volatility continues to pressure the bottom line as prices averaged $4.05 per gallon this quarter.
AAdvantage loyalty growth: New enrollments in the AAdvantage loyalty program grew more than 30% compared to a year ago, keeping customer engagement high. This growth in members helped drive an 8% increase in spending on the company's co-branded credit cards, which provides a steady stream of high-margin income.
Lowered yearly profit outlook: The airline now expects full year adjusted earnings to be between a loss of $0.65 and a profit of $0.65 per share, a wide range that accounts for high fuel prices. For the upcoming third quarter, the company anticipates revenue will grow between 16.0% and 19.0% compared to the same period last year.
Our take: This was a resilient quarter where record sales and a 26% surge in corporate travel managed to keep the company profitable despite a doubling of fuel expenses. While the lower full year profit outlook is a drag, the underlying demand for premium seats and loyalty program growth keeps the long-term recovery story intact.
American Airlines’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
22
Expectation
EPS
$-0.20
Revenue
$16.12B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
AAdvantage Enrollment Growth
Staying above 20% year-over-year growth
30% YoY in Q2 2026
Total Debt Level
Reducing toward a target of $30 billion by 2027
$34.7 billion in Q1 2026
Premium Seat Mix
Lie-flat and Premium Economy growing twice as fast as Main Cabin
2x faster than Main Cabin in Q1 2026
Managed Corporate Revenue
Growing at double-digit rates annually
26% YoY in Q2 2026
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