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Acadia reported that its experimental drug, remlifanserin, failed to meet the main goal of a mid-stage trial for patients with Alzheimer's psychosis. The study was designed to see if the drug could reduce symptoms like hallucinations and delusions more effectively than a placebo, but it did not show a clear benefit.
This is a setback because this drug was the company's primary hope for expanding beyond its two existing treatments. While Acadia still earns steady cash from its approved drugs for Parkinson's and Rett syndrome, this failure removes a major potential source of future growth that many had been watching for this October.
Source: Reuters
The European Commission, which regulates medicines for the European Union, has authorized Daybue to treat Rett syndrome. This makes it the first and only approved treatment for the rare neurological disorder in that region. The approval covers both adults and children aged five and older.
This is a major win for the company because it expands the potential market for its newest growth engine beyond the United States. Daybue is already a key part of the business, and its success in Europe will be a major factor in whether the company can continue to grow its total sales and cash flow as its older drugs mature.
Source: Business Wire
UBS raised its target for the stock from $45 to $49, which is well above where it trades today. This move follows recent results showing that the company is successfully growing sales for Daybue, its treatment for Rett syndrome, a rare genetic brain disorder. For a long-term owner, this target change reflects growing confidence that the business can keep its lead in niche markets where it has no direct rivals. While price targets are just one firm's estimate of what the stock is worth, this higher figure suggests the company is effectively turning its research wins into steady cash flow.
Source: UBS
Needham raised its price target for the company from $38 to $41. This new target sits well above the average analyst estimate of $32 and the current stock price of about $29. Analysts use these targets to show what they think a stock will be worth in a year. The move follows recent results showing that the company's newer drug for Rett syndrome is gaining traction. While a target change on its own is routine, this higher estimate reflects growing confidence that the company can successfully expand its reach in niche medical markets.
Source: Needham
Morgan Stanley slightly increased its price target for the company from $26 to $27. This is a routine adjustment and the new target is actually lower than where the stock is currently trading. While the firm is giving the company a bit more credit, the move is small and does not change the overall picture for the business. Most other analysts who follow the stock have a higher average target of about $31.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Management has a long history of setting conservative targets and easily clearing them. This makes their forecasts highly reliable, though a rare recent miss suggests the path to profit is getting steeper.
| Expectation | |
|---|---|
| EPS | $0.21 |
| Revenue | $332M |
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