ADM rose about 5 percent today, breaking a week-long slide, and now sits about 8 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly a delayed reaction to the company raising its full-year profit targets last week.
Our view
ADM is finally moving past its recent accounting issues and is earning more from processing crops than it expected just a few months ago. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let the recovery play out.
A surplus of chicken is lowering prices for meat processors
A rise in flock sizes and larger bird breeds has led to a surplus of chicken. While this lowers grocery bills for consumers, it puts pressure on meatpackers and the companies that supply them.
For ADM, this matters because a large part of its business involves processing crops into animal feed. When there is a glut of meat, farmers may eventually reduce their flock sizes to balance the market, which would lower the demand for ADM's feed ingredients. We are watching to see if this surplus leads to a sustained slowdown in the company's animal nutrition sales.
Morgan Stanley raised its rating on the stock to equal weight, which means they now expect it to perform in line with the broader market. They set a price target of $79.
This move suggests that analysts are becoming more comfortable with the company's path forward after its recent earnings beat. It is a step up from their previous more cautious stance, though the new target is still close to where the stock currently trades.
Quarterly dividend declared for 53rd straight year
The board declared a cash dividend of 52 cents per share, payable in September. This marks 53 consecutive years of dividend growth for the company. For a business that has recently dealt with internal accounting investigations, this long track record of payouts is a sign of financial stability. It shows the company generates enough cash from its global crop-processing network to consistently reward owners through different market cycles.
Full-year profit outlook raised on strong processing margins
The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share, well ahead of the $1.49 analysts expected. While revenue of $22.68 billion was slightly lower than predicted, the focus was on a massive hike to the full-year outlook. Management now expects to earn between $5.15 and $5.60 per share in 2026, up from the previous range of $4.15 to $4.70.
This jump is driven by better margins in soybean crushing and ethanol production. U.S. regulations for renewable fuels have created a favorable environment for the company's biofuels business. After a period of uncertainty regarding internal accounting controls, these results suggest the core business of processing and moving crops is gaining momentum.
Expanding North American oilseed processing capacity
The company announced new investments to increase its capacity for crushing oilseeds, like soybeans, in North America. This expansion is aimed at supplying the vegetable oil needed for the growing renewable fuel market.
This move aligns with the company's strategy to move beyond just shipping bulk grain and into higher-value ingredients. By expanding these facilities, the company is betting that the shift toward biofuels is a long-term trend that will keep its processing plants busy and profitable for years.
Analysts recently raised their price targets for ADM following strong second-quarter earnings results. Most analysts are neutral, with 24 of 36 holding a neutral or bearish view, and the average target suggests a 10% gain from today's price.
Average target$88+10%vs $80.31 today
TodayAvg price
Low $79High $95
Hold36 analysts
2Bearish
22Neutral
12Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Barclays
Equal Weight
$85→$90
8/5/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$79
8/5/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$58→$60
7/20/2026
UBS
Buy
$90→$95
6/15/2026
UBS
Buy
$70→$90
5/7/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$54→$58
5/6/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$77→$85
5/6/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$61→$68
2/19/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$57→$63
2/4/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$50
12/16/2025
Coker Palmer
Underweight
$59
11/4/2025
Coker Palmer
—
$63→$64
4/3/2024
Archer-Daniels-Midland earnings
Management has a consistent habit of clearing the bar, beating analyst profit estimates in seven of the last eight quarters. This suggests they have a very good handle on their costs.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Archer-Daniels-Midland past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$1.49
$1.84
+23.5%
Revenue
$22.75B
$22.68B
-0.3%
Key highlights
Full year earnings outlook raised: Management raised its full year guidance for adjusted earnings per share to a range of $5.15 to $5.60, a significant jump from the previous target of $4.15 to $4.70. This change shows the company expects a much stronger performance in its ethanol and biofuel processing businesses for the rest of the year.
Nutrition segment momentum builds: Operating profit in the nutrition division grew 51% to $172 million, driven by strong seasonal demand for flavors and better results in animal feed. This growth suggests the company is successfully fixing past performance issues in its specialized food ingredient factories.
Oilseed crushing profits surge: Profit from crushing oilseeds into meal and oil increased by $330 million compared to the same time last year, as total volumes processed rose 5% to 9.5 million metric tons. Higher demand for biofuels and steady exports of soybean meal from Brazil and the U.S. helped fuel this result.
Carbohydrate solutions margins expand: Operating profit for the division that makes corn sweeteners and ethanol rose 22% to $411 million. Lower corn prices in the U.S. and government policy incentives for biofuels gave the company a clear cost advantage over other fuel ingredients.
Agricultural services execution delivers: Profit from shipping and trading crops jumped 159% to $293 million, helped by a key grain export terminal in Brazil returning to full service. The company moved more soybeans from South America as farmers sold more of their crops during the quarter.
Our take: A very strong quarter that shows the core business is firing on all cylinders. The massive jump in the full year profit forecast is the real story, proving that favorable fuel policies and lower corn costs are creating a much better environment than expected. This performance reinforces our confidence in the company's ability to navigate volatile crop markets.
Archer-Daniels-Midland’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
NOV
3
Expectation
EPS
$1.48
Revenue
$22.48B
AUG
19
Dividend payday
Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Nutrition Profit Growth
Operating profit in Nutrition growing at 15% or more annually
51% in Q2 2026
Adjusted EPS
Reaching the high end of the $4.15 to $4.70 guidance range
$2.56 YTD 2026
Crush Volumes
Oilseed tonnage processed increasing by at least 2% per year
5% increase in Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow
Generating at least $3 billion in FCF annually across the cycle
$4.20B in FY2025
More Archer-Daniels-Midland coverage from around the web
