Updated Aug 7 at 11:01am ET.
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Piper Sandler has lowered its rating to neutral, signaling that it no longer expects the stock to outperform the broader market. The firm set a price target of $385.
This is the second major firm to step back from a more optimistic view following the latest earnings report. It indicates that some analysts are questioning if the company can maintain its high profit margins as it tries to expand its advertising software beyond mobile games and into the broader e-commerce market.
Source: Piper Sandler
Wells Fargo has moved its rating to equal weight, which means the firm now expects the stock to perform about as well as the rest of the market rather than beating it. This change comes with a new price target of $357.
This shift suggests analysts are taking a more cautious stance after the recent quarterly update. While the company is still a leader in using artificial intelligence to place mobile ads, this downgrade reflects a view that the stock is now fairly valued given its current growth pace.
Source: Wells Fargo
AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of about 1.92 billion dollars, which was slightly lower than the 1.94 billion dollars analysts expected. While earnings per share of 3.76 dollars matched expectations, the company provided a outlook for the third quarter that was lower than what Wall Street was looking for.
The stock fell about 20 percent following the news. This reaction suggests that because the company is valued at a high price compared to its earnings, any sign that its rapid growth is cooling can lead to a sharp drop. The focus for long-term owners remains on whether the AXON AI engine can continue to win market share in e-commerce to offset any slowdown in its core mobile gaming business.
See the full quarter, and how our tracked metrics did
Source: 8-K filing
AppLovin disclosed in a regulatory filing that it has completed a deal to buy or sell assets and has taken on new debt. These filings are a routine way for companies to update the public on changes to their balance sheet or leadership team.
While the filing confirms these moves are finished, it does not change the core view of the business. Taking on debt is often a tool companies use to fund growth or buy back their own shares, provided the cost of borrowing stays manageable compared to the cash the business brings in.
Source: 8-K filing
The company is scheduled to share its latest performance data today. Analysts are looking for earnings of about $3.76 per share and revenue of roughly $1.94 billion. AppLovin has a history of coming in above expectations, having topped analyst targets in each of the last eight quarters.
Beyond the raw numbers, the focus remains on how well the AXON AI engine is performing. This software predicts which ads users are most likely to click, and its success in moving beyond mobile games into the broader e-commerce market is the primary engine for growth right now.
Analysts issued a wave of downgrades and lowered price targets following the company's disappointing second-quarter earnings report. Despite this, 21 of 26 analysts still rate the stock a buy, with an average target price suggesting 67% upside.
The company has a perfect record of beating profit estimates over the last two years. Management consistently sets a bar they can clear, which makes their recent revenue miss a rare surprise.
| Expectation | |
|---|---|
| EPS | $4.05 |
| Revenue | $2.07B |