The stock rose about 6 percent today after a week of steady gains, and it now sits just 2 percent below its recent high. We think this is mostly about the successful launch of three satellites this week and anticipation for Monday's earnings report.
Our view
Launching more satellites is the clearest sign that the technology works and the business is scaling up. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and watch the network grow.
The company is expanding its work in Europe by starting network integration tests with several major mobile operators. These tests are a technical step where the company makes sure its satellite signal works correctly with the existing ground-based equipment that phone companies already use.
This move shows the company is looking beyond its initial focus on the United States. By lining up partners in Europe now, it is setting the stage to turn on its service for more customers as soon as its satellites are in place. For a business that needs a massive global user base to pay for its expensive satellite launches, adding more regions to the testing phase is a necessary step toward making the network profitable.
The company successfully launched three satellites aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. These satellites are part of the network designed to provide cellular broadband directly to standard smartphones without needing special hardware.
This is a critical step in proving the company can scale its constellation and provide continuous coverage. For a business that is moving from testing technology to generating revenue, each successful launch reduces the risk that technical failures will stall its commercial rollout.
Scotiabank raised its rating from a negative view to a neutral one. This change comes as the company moves closer to its scheduled satellite launches and works to prove its space-based broadband technology can work at scale.
While not a full endorsement, the upgrade reflects a shift in how analysts view the company's risk. As the business moves from a research project to a functional network, firms are becoming more comfortable with its ability to meet its technical goals.
Company newsFor the record
Jul 27
Second quarter update set for August 10
Management will provide an update on the company's progress and financial health. These calls are the primary way for the company to share details on satellite performance and its timeline for reaching a full 90-satellite constellation.
The company finalized a deal to borrow 1.15 billion dollars through convertible notes, which are a type of debt that can later be turned into shares of stock. The notes carry a low interest rate of about 1.6 percent and are not due until 2034.
This is a significant move for the company's cash runway, which is the amount of time it can operate before needing more money. Building a global satellite network is expensive, and this funding helps bridge the gap until the company can generate enough cash from its carrier partners like AT&T and Verizon.
Analysts have recently shifted their tone, with two upgrades occurring in mid-July following a period of mixed ratings. Three of the seven analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $100 suggests 39% upside.
Average target$100+39%vs $71.94 today
TodayAvg price
Low $80High $108
Hold7 analysts
1Bearish
3Neutral
3Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$100
7/15/2026
New Street
—
$106
5/29/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$106
5/29/2026
New Street
Neutral
$80
5/13/2026
Roth Capital
—
$82.50→$108
5/12/2026
UBS
Neutral
$85→$80
5/12/2026
New Street
—
$137→$115
4/20/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$139→$117
4/15/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$81→$137
1/20/2026
UBS
Neutral
$87→$137
1/20/2026
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$45.60
11/24/2025
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$42.90
10/7/2025
AST SpaceMobile earnings
The company has missed analyst estimates for six straight quarters. This suggests the business is still in a heavy spending phase where costs are harder to predict than revenue.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
AST SpaceMobile past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$-0.26
$-0.66
-158.8%
Revenue
$39M
$15M
-62.2%
Key highlights
Satellite launch timeline set: The company expects its next orbital launch in mid June for its BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites, which are critical to proving its technology for everyday smartphones. This moves the business closer to its goal of having approximately 45 satellites in orbit during 2026 to provide steady commercial service.
Full year revenue target: Management expects to generate between $150.0 million and $200.0 million in revenue for the full year 2026, which would be a major jump from the $14.7 million reported this quarter. About half of that total is already locked in through existing contracts, meaning the company needs to win more government or carrier deals to hit the top of the range.
Production pace accelerating: A new Texas facility is now capable of producing parts for more than 10 satellites per month, which helps the company scale up for its target of 100 satellites for global coverage. This manufacturing speed is essential because production costs and engineering services pushed total operating expenses to $164.1 million this quarter.
Data speed record achieved: Engineers hit a new peak data speed of 98.9 Mbps using an existing satellite in space, showing that the network can deliver broadband to standard phones. Management expects the next version of satellites already in orbit to nearly double these speeds, which is the key selling point for its 60 mobile network partners.
Massive cash cushion built: The company ended the quarter with $3.5 billion in cash and equivalents, providing a very long runway to fund expensive satellite builds. This is a significant increase from the $2.3 billion held at the end of last year, largely due to raising $1.06 billion from new debt and issuing more stock.
Our take: This was a productive quarter focused on building the bank account and the factory rather than immediate sales. While the revenue miss looks large, the $3.5 billion cash pile is the real story because it removes the immediate fear of running out of money before the network is finished. It keeps the long term plan on track.
AST SpaceMobile’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
10
Expectation
EPS
$-0.32
Revenue
$35M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Active Satellites
Reaching 20 commercial satellites in orbit by late 2026
1 test satellite (BlueWalker 3) as of Q1 2026
Carrier ARPU Share
Maintaining a 50/50 revenue split with MNO partners
50/50 split in AT&T definitive agreement as of Q1 2026
Cash Burn Rate
Quarterly burn staying below $40 million during production
$48.1 million in Q1 2026
Subscriber Backlog
Reaching 100 million "covered" subscribers through definitive deals
3 billion subscribers via 60 carrier partners as of Q1 2026