American Express fell about 1 percent today, continuing a slow drift that has taken the stock down 4 percent over the last month. We think this is mostly ordinary movement on a quiet news day, though the stock is lagging a broader market that rose today.
Our view
American Express is seeing its highest spending growth in years and just raised its revenue targets, which shows the brand's premium status is holding up well. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let that growth play out.
Wholesale prices, which measure what businesses pay for goods before they reach consumers, stayed flat in July. This is another sign that inflation is cooling across the economy.
For American Express, slower inflation is generally a positive. When prices for travel and dining stabilize, it helps protect the spending power of its members. It also reduces the risk that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates high, which can eventually weigh on consumer confidence and spending volume.
American Express is rolling out its annual slate of exclusive spaces and services for the US Open tennis tournament. These include premium lounges for cardholders and interactive fan zones. While this is a routine marketing event, it is a core part of the company's strategy to make its cards feel like a membership club rather than just a payment tool. High-profile partnerships like this help justify the annual fees that members pay and keep the brand attractive to the younger, high-spending customers the company targets.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated she is prepared to vote for an interest rate hike if inflation does not show clearer signs of easing. This is a shift from last week when the central bank held rates steady.
For a company like American Express, higher rates are a double-edged sword. While they allow the company to earn more interest on the balances customers carry, they also increase the risk that some members will struggle to pay their bills. Because the business relies heavily on high-spending members rather than just interest, a sharp rise in rates could also dampen the luxury travel and dining spending that drives its revenue.
Venture arm invests in AI platform for small businesses
Amex Ventures, the company's startup investment arm, took part in a $19.5 million funding round for Pie. Pie is an artificial intelligence platform designed to help small business owners find and keep customers. While this is a small investment for a company of this size, it aligns with a focus on small business owners, who make up a large and profitable portion of its card member base.
The stock fell about 6 percent following the second-quarter results. While profit was better than expected, total revenue of $19.64 billion was just under the $19.70 billion target set by analysts. This suggests that while the company is managing its costs and credit risk well, the pace of new revenue growth was not quite as fast as some had hoped for, even with the raised full-year outlook.
Analysts recently lowered their price targets for American Express in a late July flurry of activity. Currently, 23 of 57 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $378 suggests an 11% gain from today's price.
Average target$378.09+11%vs $340.53 today
TodayAvg price
Low $315High $415
Hold57 analysts
4Bearish
30Neutral
23Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
UBS
Neutral
$386→$384
8/3/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$385→$382
7/27/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$380→$370
7/27/2026
BTIG
Sell
$324→$315
7/27/2026
HSBC
Hold
$312→$329
7/13/2026
UBS
Neutral
$340→$386
7/7/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$322→$364
7/7/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$345→$380
7/6/2026
BTIG
Sell
$285→$324
6/30/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$396
6/29/2026
Loop Capital Markets
Buy
$389
5/21/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$330→$345
4/29/2026
American Express earnings
Management has a very consistent habit of clearing the bar, beating profit expectations in seven of the last eight quarters while maintaining double-digit revenue growth.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
American Express past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$4.41
$4.53
+2.7%
Revenue
$19.70B
$19.64B
-0.3%
Key highlights
Revenue outlook raised: Management raised its full year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 10%, up from previous expectations, because the business saw stronger momentum in the first half of the year. The company still expects to earn between $17.30 and $17.90 per share for the full year as it plans to reinvest extra profits back into the business.
Card spending accelerating: Spending by card members grew 9% this quarter, which is the fastest rate of growth the company has seen in three years after adjusting for currency changes. This increased activity helped drive total revenue up 10% to $19.64 billion.
Premium card momentum: The Platinum Card portfolio is now the fastest growing part of the U.S. Consumer business, following a recent refresh of the card's features and benefits. This demand helped push total expenses up 12% to $14.5 billion, partly because more customers are using the travel and dining perks that come with their accounts.
Credit quality remains stable: The net write-off rate, which is the percentage of loans the company does not expect to collect, was 2.0% for the quarter. This is the same rate as a year ago and shows that the company's premium customers are still managing their debt well even as total card balances grow.
Shrinking share count: The company reduced its average number of shares outstanding by 3% compared to last year. By buying back its own stock, American Express is able to spread its $3.1 billion in net income across fewer shares, which helped boost earnings per share by 11%.
Our take: This was a very strong quarter where the company actually beat its own expectations for how fast it could grow. Raising the full year revenue outlook to 10% signals that premium consumer spending is resilient. While the plan to spend those extra gains on marketing might limit an immediate profit jump, it strengthens the long-term case for the stock.
American Express’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
23
Expectation
EPS
$4.58
Revenue
$20.12B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Card Fee Growth
Double-digit year-over-year growth in net card fees
Strong growth in Q2 2026
Billed Business Growth
Total spending on proprietary cards growing at 8% or better
9% YoY in Q2 2026
Gen Z/Millennial Acquisition
Over 60% of new consumer card acquisitions coming from younger cohorts
Over 60% in Q4 2025
Net Write-off Rate
Remaining significantly below the industry average (e.g., below 3%)
2.0% in Q2 2026
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