Birkenstock fell about 6 percent today, its sharpest one-day drop in weeks, and has now lost nearly 18 percent over the last month. We think this is mostly about nerves ahead of Thursday's earnings report, as there was no other major news to explain a move this size.
Our view
That is a big one-day move to stomach, but it doesn't change how many people are buying premium footwear. If you already own it, there's nothing to do here but sit tight and wait for the earnings update on Thursday.
The company is scheduled to share its performance for the most recent quarter in about five days. Analysts are looking for revenue of around 820 million dollars and earnings of about 86 cents per share. This update will be an important check on whether the brand's recent push into more expensive closed-toe shoes and direct sales is continuing to drive growth.
The firm set its price target at 44 dollars per share. This is slightly lower than the average target of 48 dollars across all Wall Street analysts who follow the company. While the target suggests the stock has room to rise from its current price of 37 dollars, it reflects a more cautious stance than many of its peers.
The firm moved its rating to neutral, which generally means they expect the stock to perform in line with the broader market rather than beating it. This shift often happens when analysts worry that a company's growth is slowing or that the stock price already reflects all the good news. For a premium brand like this, it may signal concerns about how much more customers are willing to spend on high-end footwear.
Birkenstock analyst price targets
Analysts lowered several price targets following the company's earnings report in mid-May. Most analysts still favor the stock, with 13 of 16 rating it a buy and an average target price that suggests 29% upside from current levels.
Average target$48.17+29%vs $37.47 today
TodayAvg price
Low $41High $55
Strong Buy16 analysts
0Bearish
3Neutral
13Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
William Blair
—
$44
8/3/2026
Raymond James
Outperform
$52
7/1/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$52→$52.50
5/22/2026
Telsey Advisory
Outperform
$60→$45
5/14/2026
Deutsche Bank
Buy
$48→$41
5/14/2026
Morgan Stanley
—
$47→$41
5/14/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$56→$51
5/13/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$60→$55
4/27/2026
Seaport Global
Neutral
$52
4/14/2026
Deutsche Bank
Buy
$50→$49
2/13/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$62.80→$59
1/29/2026
New Street
—
$57→$47
1/27/2026
Birkenstock earnings
Management has a habit of setting a high bar that they don't always clear, with several misses on profit over the last two years.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Birkenstock past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.69
$0.59
-14.0%
Revenue
$717M
$714M
-0.3%
Key highlights
Asian demand surging: Revenue in the Asia Pacific region grew 30% after adjusting for currency changes, outperforming the rest of the business by growing twice as fast. This growth is important for long-term owners because the region also has the highest average selling prices and the highest share of closed-toe shoes, which carry better profits.
Profit margins squeezed: The adjusted gross profit margin, which shows how much the company keeps after making its shoes, dropped to 54.6% from 57.7% a year ago. Most of this dip came from currency swings and 90 basis points of cost from new U.S. tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods.
Direct sales slowing: Sales made directly to consumers grew 12% on a constant currency basis, a significant slowdown from the 30% growth seen in the same quarter last year. While the company added 5 new stores to reach 111 total locations, more of this quarter's 14% total growth came from selling to wholesale partners like sports stores.
Closed-toe expansion: The company reported that its share of closed-toe products continued to expand this quarter, helping move the business toward its goal of having these styles make up 45% of total sales by 2027. Selling more year-round shoes helps the brand rely less on summer weather and seasonal sandal demand.
Full year targets held: Management expects full year revenue to grow between 13% and 15% on a constant currency basis while maintaining an adjusted profit margin between 30.0% and 30.5%. Confirming these goals despite current headwinds from the Middle East conflict and U.S. tariffs suggests the company is confident in its ability to manage rising costs.
Our take: This was a resilient quarter that showed Birkenstock can still grow in a difficult environment. While higher costs from U.S. tariffs and currency swings hurt the bottom line, the 30% growth in Asia is a major win for the long-term case. The core brand remains healthy even as the business navigates temporary global trade pressures.
Birkenstock’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
AUG
13
Expectation
EPS
$0.86
Revenue
$817M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Closed-Toe Revenue Share
Reaching 45% of total revenue by fiscal 2027
expanding in Q2 2026
DTC Revenue Growth
Consistently growing above 20% year-over-year
12% YoY in Q2 2026
APAC Growth Rate
Staying above 25% on a constant currency basis
30% YoY in Q2 2026
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Maintaining a threshold of 30% or higher
32.1% in Q2 2026
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