The stock fell about 1 percent today, its sixth down day out of the last ten, and now sits about 6 percent below its high from late July. We think this is mostly about a new report showing U.S. retail sales fell last month, which weighed on the whole sector today.
Our view
Burlington is successfully copying the playbook of its larger rivals by moving into smaller, more efficient stores that earn more profit per foot. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let that multi-year turnaround play out.
Burlington reported a change in its leadership team
Burlington filed a notice with the SEC regarding a change to its board of directors or executive team. These filings are required whenever a company adds or loses a high-level leader who helps set the business strategy.
While the filing confirms a transition is happening, it does not signal a change in the company's broader plan to catch up to larger rivals like Ross and TJX. Burlington is still focused on its multi-year turnaround, which involves opening smaller stores and managing its inventory more tightly to improve its profit margins.
Retail sales across the country fell about 0.6 percent last month, a sharper drop than the small growth many had expected. This suggests that shoppers are becoming more cautious with their spending as they deal with higher prices and tighter budgets.
For a discount retailer like Burlington, this is a mixed signal. While a general pullback in spending can hurt sales, Burlington often benefits when shoppers "trade down" from full-price department stores to find better deals. The company is currently moving to smaller store formats to lower its costs, which may help it stay profitable even if the broader retail environment stays soft for a while.
Jefferies raised its price target for Burlington to $410, up from $365 previously. A price target is what an analyst thinks the stock will be worth in the future based on their financial models. This change suggests the firm sees more room for the stock to grow as Burlington continues its shift toward smaller, more efficient stores. While the target is higher, the firm did not change its overall rating on the stock, and the move follows similar target increases from other major firms over the last few weeks.
Morgan Stanley set a price target of $438, which is about 19 percent higher than where the stock trades today. This target also sits well above the average analyst target of $389.
This suggests the firm sees more room for the company to grow than most of its peers do. This likely stems from the company's ongoing shift to smaller, more profitable stores, which is a strategy that has already proven successful for larger rivals in the off-price retail space.
Analysts have recently raised their price targets for Burlington Stores following positive momentum in the stock. Most analysts are bullish, with 33 of 35 rating it a buy and an average target of $397, suggesting 12% upside.
Average target$396.50+12%vs $353.64 today
TodayAvg price
Low $310High $438
Strong Buy35 analysts
0Bearish
2Neutral
33Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Jefferies
Buy
$365→$410
8/14/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$438
8/5/2026
Jefferies
Buy
$370→$365
5/29/2026
UBS
Buy
$430→$435
5/29/2026
UBS
Buy
$351
5/29/2026
Truist Financial
Hold
$305→$310
5/28/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$365→$411
5/26/2026
Truist Financial
Hold
$305
5/18/2026
Jefferies
Buy
$370
3/5/2026
Evercore ISI
Outperform
$375
3/5/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$318
1/8/2026
Bernstein
—
$335→$350
1/6/2026
Burlington Stores earnings
Management has a perfect record of beating expectations over the last two years. They consistently set a bar they can clear, often by a wide margin.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Burlington Stores past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$1.80
$2.01
+11.7%
Revenue
$2.80B
$2.85B
+1.9%
Key highlights
Strong sales growth: Total sales rose 14% to $2.85 billion during the quarter, as the company benefited from opening 127 net new stores compared to the same time last year.
Store performance accelerating: Sales at stores open at least a year, known as comparable store sales, grew 6%, which is a significant jump from the 1% growth reported just two quarters ago.
Inventory levels rising: Comparable store inventory increased 11% this quarter, a sharp reversal from being down 2% in the prior year, as the company stocks up on branded goods for future seasons.
Profitability limits reached: Adjusted profit margins increased only slightly to 6.3% of sales, and the company still has a long way to go to reach its 10% long-term target for business efficiency.
Higher earnings outlook: Management raised full year guidance and now expects adjusted earnings per share between $11.45 and $11.80, up from the $10.17 earned in the previous fiscal year.
Our take: A very strong start to the year, driven by a 6% jump in sales at established stores that easily beat the company's own targets. This momentum allowed management to raise the full year earnings outlook, reinforcing the case that Burlington is successfully scaling its footprint toward its long term goals.
Burlington Stores’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
27
Expectation
EPS
$2.18
Revenue
$3.02B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Comparable Store Sales
Growing between 1% and 3% annually
6% in Q1 2026
Adjusted EBIT Margin
Expanding toward the 10% long-term target
6.3% in Q1 2026
Net New Store Openings
Opening 110 net new locations per year
115 net new stores planned for FY2026
Comparable Store Inventory
Staying flat or declining while sales grow
Up 11% in Q1 2026
More Burlington Stores coverage from around the web
