Carnival fell about 2 percent today, its first drop after several days of gains, but it still sits very close to its highest price since early August. We think this is mostly about a jump in oil prices, which makes it more expensive to run a global fleet of ships.
Our view
The business is currently seeing record demand and has a massive cushion of customer deposits to fund its growth. If you already own it, there is no reason to let a jumpy stock price change your plans: sit tight.
Oil prices rise on potential Strait of Hormuz restrictions
Crude oil prices rose after Iran published a draft plan that could restrict ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a critical waterway for global energy supplies, and any disruption there typically leads to higher fuel prices.
Fuel is one of the largest expenses for a cruise operator. When oil prices climb, it directly eats into the profit earned on every cabin sold. While the company often uses hedges, financial contracts that lock in prices in advance, sustained high oil prices remain a primary risk to its earnings.
Deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz enters final stages
A deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly in its final stages. This agreement between Iran and Oman aims to resolve disputes over maritime entry and exit routes that have recently pressured global shipping and energy markets.
For a cruise business, this is a welcome development. Stability in this region helps keep oil prices in check and reduces the risk of having to reroute ships or cancel sailings in the Middle East. Lower geopolitical tension generally supports the steady demand and predictable fuel costs the company needs to continue paying down its debt.
The world's largest cruise operator has set a new goal to reduce its greenhouse gas intensity by 25 percent by 2029. This update moves the timeline up by one year and raises the reduction target by five percentage points from its previous plan. The company reached its original 2030 goal five years ahead of schedule. While these environmental targets are increasingly important for regulatory compliance and fuel efficiency, this specific update is a routine adjustment to a long-term strategy and does not change the immediate financial outlook for the business.
Holland America Line has opened bookings for its 2028 European season, which will feature its highest number of port calls in nearly a decade. The schedule includes sailings across Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Canary Islands. Opening bookings this far in advance is a standard industry practice that helps the company build up customer deposits. These deposits act as an interest-free source of cash that the company can use to fund its operations and pay down debt while it waits for the actual sailings to take place.
Celebration Key welcomes 2.4 million guests in first year
Celebration Key, the company's private destination on Grand Bahama, hosted 2.4 million guests during its first year of operation. Private destinations are highly profitable because the company keeps a much larger share of the money guests spend on food, drinks, and activities compared to a standard port.
This high volume of visitors shows that the company's investment in exclusive land-based experiences is resonating with travelers. Success at these sites is a key part of the strategy to grow the revenue earned from each passenger, which helps offset rising costs elsewhere in the business.
Analysts have recently issued a flurry of updates as they weigh the company's ongoing recovery against near-term demand risks. Most analysts are bullish with 28 of 47 rating the stock a buy, and the average target price suggests 24% upside.
Average target$35.80+24%vs $28.79 today
TodayAvg price
Low $30High $42
Buy47 analysts
2Bearish
17Neutral
28Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
BMO Capital
—
$30
7/7/2026
Tigress Financial
Buy
$40→$42
6/30/2026
Argus Research
Buy
$30→$35
6/26/2026
Susquehanna
Positive
$30→$33
6/24/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$36→$35
6/24/2026
Melius Research
Buy
$32→$36
6/17/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$36
6/12/2026
Loop Capital Markets
Buy
$36
6/1/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$37→$36
4/15/2026
Mizuho Securities
Outperform
$38→$39
3/27/2026
Truist Financial
Hold
$31→$34
1/22/2026
UBS
Buy
$37→$38
1/12/2026
Carnival Cruise Lines earnings
Management has cleared the analyst bar for eight straight quarters, often by a wide margin. This suggests they are conservative with their forecasts and the business is recovering faster than expected.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Carnival Cruise Lines past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.34
$0.41
+19.1%
Revenue
$6.69B
$6.66B
-0.4%
Key highlights
Customer deposits reach record: The money guests paid in advance for future cruises hit an all-time high of $9.0 billion. This is a $450 million increase over the previous record set last year, showing that demand for vacations remains very strong despite higher living costs.
Yields hit new highs: Net yields, which measure the revenue earned for each room after certain variable costs, grew 2.2% this quarter. This marks the twelfth consecutive quarter of record yields, proving the company can raise prices and still fill its ships.
Fuel costs create friction: Fuel prices rose nearly 30% compared to last year, which added $73 million in extra costs this quarter. While the company improved its fuel efficiency by 5.6% per room, the sharp price spike still ate into the total profit gains.
Debt burden easing: The company reduced its debt to earnings ratio to 3.1x, an improvement from 3.7x just one year ago. Management is using strong cash flow to pay down loans and recently spent over $450 million to buy back its own stock, which returns value to shareholders.
Full year profit outlook: For the full year of 2026, the company expects to earn an adjusted profit of approximately $3.07 billion, or $2.22 per share. This forecast includes a predicted 3.2% increase in yields as the company stays 93% booked for the remainder of the year.
Our take: This was a record-breaking quarter that proves the cruise industry's recovery is now a sustained growth story. While high fuel costs and Middle East tensions created some friction, the record $9.0 billion in customer deposits shows that travelers are prioritizing these vacations. We are encouraged by the 3.1x leverage ratio, which signals the company is finally moving past its heavy post-pandemic debt load.
Carnival Cruise Lines’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
SEP
28
Expectation
EPS
$1.36
Revenue
$8.40B
AUG
7
Dividend payday
Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Net Yield Growth
Sustaining annual growth of at least 2.0% in constant currency
2.2% in Q2 2026
Customer Deposits
Staying above $8.5 billion on an annual basis
$9.0B in Q2 2026
Net Debt / EBITDA
Dropping below 3.0x by the end of FY2026
3.1x in Q2 2026
Occupancy Rate
Maintaining levels at or above 104% during peak seasons
104% in Q2 2026
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