Cellebrite fell about 2 percent today, its second straight down day, and it now sits about 5 percent below its high from mid-July. We think this is mostly ordinary movement and the whole tech market drifting lower rather than anything specific to the company.
Our view
The business is growing its recurring subscription revenue at a healthy clip while remaining profitable. If you have been thinking about buying it, this is a fair price to pay for a market leader in a very specialized field.
Cellebrite is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on August 13. Analysts are looking for earnings of about 6 cents per share on roughly 130 million dollars in revenue.
The company has a track record of beating expectations in most of its recent quarters. For long-term owners, the focus remains on annual recurring revenue growth and whether the company is successfully moving more law enforcement agencies onto its broader cloud-based investigation platform.
D.A. Davidson increased its price target for Cellebrite to $22, which is about 10 percent higher than the average analyst target of $20. This move suggests growing confidence in the company's ability to sell more software to law enforcement agencies.
Cellebrite is currently shifting its business to a subscription model. Higher price targets like this one usually reflect a belief that the company will successfully keep its existing customers while adding new ones in the federal government.
Cellebrite has expanded an exclusive partnership with SkySafe to integrate drone detection and airspace intelligence into its investigation software. This allows law enforcement to see what is happening in the sky and what is stored on a drone within a single digital workflow.
This is a smart move to keep Cellebrite's software at the center of modern police work. By adding drone data to its platform, the company makes its tools harder to replace and gives agencies a reason to keep paying for its broader suite of services rather than just using it to unlock phones.
Analysts recently raised their price targets following the company's investor events in June. All 8 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $20 suggests a 29% increase from the current price.
Average target$20.25+31%vs $15.46 today
TodayAvg price
Low $15High $23
Strong Buy8 analysts
0Bearish
0Neutral
8Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
D.A. Davidson
—
$20→$22
8/6/2026
D.A. Davidson
Buy
$20
5/26/2026
Needham
Buy
$18→$15
5/15/2026
Lake Street
Buy
$23→$21
2/12/2026
UBS
—
$25→$23
2/12/2026
Needham
Buy
$24→$18
2/12/2026
Bank of America Securities
—
$17→$20
10/23/2024
Craig-Hallum
Buy
$20→$23
9/25/2024
Loop Capital Markets
—
$17
8/16/2024
Bank of America Securities
—
$13→$17
8/16/2024
Craig-Hallum
Buy
$14→$16
4/1/2024
Cellebrite earnings
The company has a strong habit of beating expectations, though it has found it harder to clear the bar in the last two quarters as growth targets got more ambitious.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Cellebrite past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.05
$0.04
-25.6%
Revenue
$127M
$128M
+1.0%
Key highlights
Subscription revenue growing: Subscription revenue rose 23% to $117.9 million, making up the vast majority of the $128.3 million in total sales. This shift toward recurring software sales helps make the business more predictable than it was a year ago when subscription growth was a smaller piece of the total.
Customer spending holding steady: The net retention rate, which measures how much more existing customers spend each year, stayed solid at 115%. This matches the high level from previous quarters and shows that investigators are adding more tools to their existing contracts.
Drone forensics expansion: The company closed its purchase of SCG Canada on March 1, 2026, to add drone data extraction to its platform. This move expands the business into a new category of devices that can now be used as evidence in criminal and military investigations.
Cloud security milestone: The company received FedRAMP High Authorization for its government cloud platform, meaning it meets the toughest security standards for federal agencies. This approval is a requirement for winning larger contracts with the U.S. Department of Justice and other national security departments.
Higher profit margins: Adjusted profit margins, which measure how much money is left after running the business, reached 23.9% this quarter. This is an improvement over the 22.0% margin from the same time last year, showing the company is getting more efficient as it scales.
Full year revenue outlook: Management expects full year revenue to land between $565 million and $571 million, which would be growth of up to 20% over last year. This outlook suggests that while total sales growth is steady, annual recurring revenue is expected to grow even faster at a rate between 22% and 23% in the coming quarter.
Our take: This was a productive quarter that shows the business is successfully moving toward a high margin software model. Total recurring revenue grew 21% to $493 million, and new federal security clearances should open doors for larger government deals later this year. The focus on recurring sales strengthens the long term case for the stock.
Cellebrite’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
13
Expectation
EPS
$0.06
Revenue
$132M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
ARR Growth
Sustaining growth above 20% annually through FY2027
21% YoY in Q1 2026
Net Retention Rate
Staying above 110% to support efficient growth
115% in Q1 2026
Gross Margin
Maintaining non-GAAP gross margins above 82%
85.9% (Non-GAAP) in Q1 2026
Federal Revenue Share
Growing to over 15% of total revenue within 24 months