CoStar fell about 2 percent today, continuing a slow and steady drift lower that has seen it drop on half of the last ten trading days. We think this is mostly ordinary movement since there was no major news and the broader market barely moved today.
Our view
The business is showing real signs that its heavy spending on residential real estate is starting to pay off in higher profits. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let that expansion play out.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.69 percent this week, marking a one-year high. Higher rates generally make buying a home more expensive, which can slow down the number of houses being sold.
This is a trend to watch because CoStar is currently spending heavily to grow Homes.com, its residential marketplace. If high rates keep buyers on the sidelines, it could make it harder for the company to quickly grow the traffic and agent subscriptions it needs to justify its massive marketing budget.
Company newsPositive
Aug 6
UK lab space demand hits record high
Demand for laboratory space in the UK has reached a record high, driven by a major prelet agreement where a tenant commits to a lease before a building is finished. GSK signed for 300,000 square feet at the Cambridge Biomedical Campus, helping push total leasing activity past 1.2 million square feet over the last four quarters. This data highlights the strength of the life sciences sector even as other office markets struggle. For CoStar, these trends reinforce the value of its proprietary data, as it remains the primary source for tracking specialized property sectors that are currently outperforming the broader market.
Industrial property vacancy expected to rise through 2027
CoStar's latest forecast suggests that the amount of empty industrial space will increase slightly through early 2027 before it begins to fall again. The national vacancy rate is currently in the mid-7 percent range as new buildings continue to open faster than companies are renting them. While a higher vacancy rate can be a sign of a cooling market, CoStar expects demand to catch up by late 2027. For the company, these market shifts often drive more brokers to use its listing platforms to find tenants, which helps keep its core commercial data business steady.
Founder and CEO Andrew Florance bought roughly $2.5 million of CoStar stock this week. Unlike routine stock awards that are part of a pay package, this was an open-market purchase using his own cash.
Large purchases by a founder often signal confidence in the company's long-term direction. This buy comes as CoStar continues its expensive push into the residential housing market, suggesting the person running the business believes the current stock price does not reflect the company's future potential.
Company newsFor the record
Jul 31
UK office construction starts hit 20-year low
New office construction in the UK has dropped sharply, with annual project starts falling below 5 million square feet. This is a significant decline from the 16 million square feet seen in 2019, as higher costs and changing work habits slow down new development. While fewer new buildings mean less new data to track in the short term, a tighter market often makes CoStar's analytics more essential for landlords trying to manage their existing properties. The company's data shows that London continues to see more activity than other regions.
Several analysts recently downgraded the stock and lowered their price targets. Most experts still rate it a buy, and the average target price suggests the stock could rise 36% from its current level.
Average target$40.10+36%vs $29.58 today
TodayAvg price
Low $26High $67
Buy27 analysts
2Bearish
9Neutral
16Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
BTIG
Buy
$55→$42
7/29/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$46→$40
7/29/2026
Needham
Buy
$40
7/29/2026
Wolfe Research
Outperform
$32
7/29/2026
Robert W. Baird
Neutral
$34
7/14/2026
RBC Capital
Sector Perform
$34
7/13/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$54→$46
6/25/2026
Wells Fargo
Underweight
$33→$26
6/24/2026
Stephens
Overweight
$50→$42
5/4/2026
Deutsche Bank
—
$55→$44
4/30/2026
Needham
Buy
$60→$50
4/29/2026
BTIG
Buy
$60→$55
4/15/2026
CoStar Group earnings
Management has a perfect record of clearing the bars they set, beating expectations for eight straight quarters. It shows they have a very firm handle on their costs and growth.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
CoStar Group past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.29
$0.32
+12.0%
Revenue
$929M
$925M
-0.4%
Key highlights
Profitability inflection reached: The company reached a turning point as adjusted earnings, a measure of profit that excludes certain one-time costs, more than doubled to $184 million this quarter. This jump was fueled by keeping operating cost growth to just 2% while revenue grew 18% to $925 million.
Residential segment turns positive: The residential business, which includes Homes.com, reported a positive adjusted profit of $122 million for the first time. This is a significant swing from a $76 million loss in the same quarter last year, showing the company is starting to see returns on its heavy marketing investments.
Artificial intelligence driving engagement: The launch of AI tools on Apartments.com led to users spending 2.8 times longer on the site and viewing twice as many listings. These sessions lasted an average of 20 minutes and helped drive a 256% increase in the rate of visitors turning into leads for property managers.
Strong core commercial growth: Revenue from the core CoStar platform grew 9% to $337 million compared to a year ago. The company also expanded its reach by launching the CoStar platform in France and introducing new rent benchmarking tools built from four million lease agreements.
Full year revenue outlook: Management expects full year revenue to be between $3.715 billion and $3.755 billion, which is roughly 15% growth over last year. They also raised their profit goals by $30 million at the midpoint and now expect adjusted earnings between $780 million and $820 million for the year.
Our take: This was a standout quarter where CoStar finally proved it can turn its massive residential traffic into real profit. The residential segment moving into the black is the clear highlight, as it validates the billions spent on marketing over the last two years. This shift significantly strengthens the long-term case for the company.
CoStar Group’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
27
Expectation
EPS
$0.33
Revenue
$940M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Homes.com Network Traffic
Staying above 110 million average monthly unique visitors
118 million average monthly unique visitors in Q2 2026
Commercial Subscription Growth
Maintaining 8% to 12% revenue growth in the core CoStar Suite
9% YoY revenue growth in Q2 2026
Sales Force Productivity
Increasing the number of representatives to over 500 with rising contract values
275 representatives as of Q4 2024
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Returning toward 30% by FY2026 as initial marketing spend levels off