The stock rose about 1 percent today, continuing a steady week-long climb that has it sitting just 4 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly ordinary movement and a bit of stability ahead of its earnings report, as there was no major news to drive the price today.
Our view
Deere is managing through a period where farmers are buying less equipment, but its focus on high-margin tech features helps protect its profits. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and wait for the industry cycle to turn back up.
The company will release its third quarter results on August 20. These numbers will show how well the business is managing a period where farm incomes are lower and demand for new equipment has slowed. We will be looking for updates on whether the company is still on track to meet its profit goals for the year.
The company reached an agreement with the Federal Trade Commission and five states to provide farmers and independent shops with better access to diagnostic tools and repair manuals. This addresses "right to repair" concerns that have been a point of friction for years.
While this opens up more options for farmers to handle their own maintenance, the company still earns most of its high-margin revenue from the advanced software and automation built into the machines. Providing these tools helps settle a long-running legal and political issue without changing the core business of selling high-tech equipment.
Analysts have kept a steady pace of updates for Deere throughout the year without any major shifts in sentiment. Most of the 46 analysts are split between bullish and neutral, with an average target price suggesting 12% upside.
Average target$691.58+12%vs $614.84 today
TodayAvg price
Low $500High $812
Hold46 analysts
6Bearish
22Neutral
18Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Truist Financial
Buy
$759→$812
7/2/2026
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$680
5/27/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$736→$752
5/26/2026
D.A. Davidson
—
$685
5/22/2026
Industrial Alliance Securities
—
$675→$625
3/9/2026
Raymond James
Outperform
$545→$765
2/23/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$560→$730
2/23/2026
D.A. Davidson
—
$775
2/23/2026
Wells Fargo
—
$543→$750
2/23/2026
Jefferies
Hold
$550
2/23/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$541→$736
2/20/2026
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$531→$715
2/20/2026
Deere & Company earnings
Deere has a perfect track record of beating analyst profit targets over the last two years. Management consistently sets a bar they can clear, often by a wide margin.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Deere & Company past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$5.70
$6.55
+14.9%
Revenue
$11.55B
$11.78B
+2.0%
Key highlights
Full year profit outlook: Management expects net income for fiscal 2026 to land between $4.5 billion and $5.0 billion. This forecast suggests a decline from the $10.166 billion earned in 2023, reflecting a continued downturn in the global agricultural market.
Small agriculture and turf growth: Sales in the small agriculture and turf division rose 16% to $3.485 billion during the quarter. This segment was a bright spot as higher shipment volumes and better pricing helped offset weakness in the larger farming equipment market.
Production and precision ag slump: Revenue in the production and precision agriculture segment fell 14% to $4.503 billion, while operating margins dropped from 22.0% last year to 15.7%. The decline was driven by lower shipment volumes as farmers pull back on buying large tractors and combines.
Construction and forestry boom: Construction and forestry sales jumped 29% to $3.790 billion, which helped push the division's operating profit up by 48% to $561 million. This growth demonstrates the strength of the company's diversified business even as the agricultural cycle remains soft.
Financial services profit lift: Net income for the financial services division, which provides loans to customers buying equipment, increased 18% to $190 million. The improvement came from better financing spreads, which is the difference between the interest the company pays and the interest it charges customers.
Construction technology acquisition: Deere spent $439 million to acquire Tenna, a company that provides tracking and operations software for construction equipment fleets. The move adds to the company's software capabilities as it aims to help customers manage mixed equipment fleets more efficiently.
Our take: This was a resilient quarter that shows the value of having diverse business lines. While the large farming equipment market is clearly in a slump, the big gains in construction and small tractor sales effectively cushioned the blow. It is a reassuring performance that keeps the long term case intact.
Deere & Company’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
AUG
20
Expectation
EPS
$4.71
Revenue
$10.81B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Precision Ag Sales Mix
Reaching 40% of total agricultural revenue by FY2027
~52% of total ag sales in Q2 2025
Operating Margin
Staying above 18% through the current agricultural trough
15.7% in Q2 2026
FCF Conversion
Free cash flow exceeding 80% of net income annually
43% for first half of FY2026
Software Revenue Growth
Growing at double digits as autonomy features roll out