Comfort Systems USA fell about 0.4 percent today, its third straight down day, and now sits about 7 percent below its all-time high from July. We think this is mostly a slow cooling off after a massive run, as the stock drifts lower on a quiet day with no major company news.
Our view
The company is bringing in record cash and has a $14 billion backlog of work to get through, much of it tied to the long-term buildout of AI data centers. If you've been thinking about buying it, the recent dip has brought the price back into a more reasonable range.
President Trump warns of potential AI industry regulations
President Trump stated that Congress intends to regulate the AI industry in a way that could stifle its growth. This is a development worth watching for Comfort Systems because more than half of its work backlog is tied to building the complex cooling and electrical systems for data centers.
If new rules slow down how quickly tech companies build these facilities, it could reduce the flow of new projects for the company. While no specific laws have been passed yet, the company's growth is currently tied to the speed of the AI buildout.
UBS raised its price target for the company from $2125 to $2225 while keeping a buy rating. This move signals confidence that the company can continue to earn high profits as it works through its large backlog of data center projects.
The higher target suggests the firm believes the company's specialized modular construction method will keep it ahead of traditional builders. This is a major call from a widely followed firm, indicating they see more room for the stock to rise even after its strong start to the year.
KeyBanc raised its price target to $2110, up from $2004. The firm also kept its overweight rating, which is their way of saying they expect the stock to do better than the average company in its sector. This adjustment follows a quarter where the company brought in more revenue and profit than analysts had expected.
Stifel set a price target of $1910 for the company. This suggests the firm sees steady growth ahead as the company builds out infrastructure for tech and industrial customers. While not as high as some other recent targets, it reflects a positive view of the company's ability to handle its current workload.
Second quarter profits nearly double on data center demand
The company earned $12.53 per share this quarter, far higher than the $10.45 that analysts expected and nearly double what it earned a year ago. Revenue grew to $3.27 billion, driven by intense demand for the complex mechanical and electrical systems used in data centers and high-tech factories.
What matters most for the long term is how much cash the business is generating. Operating cash flow reached $1.14 billion this quarter, a massive jump from about $252 million last year. This extra cash gives the company more room to expand its modular manufacturing plants, which is its main way of building projects faster and more efficiently than competitors.
Analysts recently issued a flurry of price target increases for Comfort Systems. Five of nine analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $2058 suggests a 21% gain from today's price.
Average target$2057.86+21%vs $1706.93 today
TodayAvg price
Low $1800High $2225
Buy9 analysts
0Bearish
4Neutral
5Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$1910
7/27/2026
UBS
Buy
$2125→$2225
7/27/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$2004→$2110
7/27/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$2159
7/9/2026
UBS
Buy
$1992→$2125
6/8/2026
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$2200
5/28/2026
UBS
Buy
$1680→$1992
4/27/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$2004
4/24/2026
GLJ Research
Buy
$2001
4/20/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$1611→$1819
4/16/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$1196→$1611
2/23/2026
D.A. Davidson
—
$1200→$1800
2/23/2026
Comfort Systems USA earnings
The company has beaten analyst profit targets for eight straight quarters, often by a wide margin. This suggests management is consistently under-promising and then outrunning even the most bullish forecasts.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Comfort Systems USA past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$10.45
$12.53
+19.9%
Revenue
$2.99B
$3.27B
+9.2%
Key highlights
Backlog hitting records: The company reported a record backlog of $14.06 billion, which is the total value of signed work yet to be finished, marking a 73% increase from the $8.12 billion reported a year ago. This growth suggests the company has a massive pipeline of work that will fuel revenue for several quarters to come.
Cash flow surge: Cash from operations reached $1.14 billion this quarter, a huge jump from the $252.5 million generated in the same period last year. This surge in cash, which is the actual money left after paying for the costs of doing business, gives the company significant flexibility to pay down debt or invest in new equipment.
Profit margins widening: Operating income margin, which measures how much profit is left from every dollar of sales after paying for labor and overhead, improved to 17.1% compared to 13.8% last year. The company is becoming more efficient as it scales up, leading to profits that are growing much faster than its sales.
Massive revenue growth: Total revenue rose 50% to $3.27 billion for the quarter, driven by strong demand across its various service locations. Even without including new acquisitions, the underlying business grew its backlog from $8.12 billion to $13.70 billion on a same store basis over the last twelve months.
Positive outlook ahead: Management expressed optimism for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 based on their strong pipeline of future projects. While they did not give a specific dollar range for future earnings, they noted that their current workforce and high demand should keep results strong for the next several quarters.
Our take: This was an exceptional quarter that showed the company is operating at a much higher level than just a year ago. The record $14.06 billion backlog and the incredible jump in cash flow to over $1 billion are the standout figures here. These results reinforce the idea that the business is successfully capturing massive demand in technical construction while becoming more profitable as it grows.
Comfort Systems USA’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
22
Expectation
EPS
$12.79
Revenue
$3.39B
AUG
13
Dividend payday
Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Total Backlog
Growing or holding above $10 billion
$14.06 billion as of Q2 2026
Advanced Tech Revenue Share
Staying above 50% of total revenue
56% in Q1 2026
Modular Revenue Mix
Rising toward 25% of total revenue
17% in Q1 2026
ROIC
Staying above 30%
37.5% TTM
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