Clearthesis
Sign inSign up

Sign up free to access investment thesis for 500+ leading US stocks

AppleAppleMicrosoftMicrosoftNvidiaNvidiaAmazonAmazonAlphabetAlphabetMetaMetaTeslaTeslaBroadcomBroadcomAMDAMDTSMCTSMCArmArmQualcommQualcommMicronMicronMarvellMarvellOracleOracleAdobeAdobeSalesforceSalesforceServiceNowServiceNowCrowdStrikeCrowdStrikePalo AltoPalo AltoSpotifySpotifyCloudflareCloudflareShopifyShopifyVisaVisaMastercardMastercardRobinhoodRobinhoodCoinbaseCoinbasePalantirPalantirBerkshireBerkshireCostcoCostcoWalmartWalmartNetflixNetflixJPMorganJPMorgan
View all covered stocks →
Clearthesis
PrivacyTermsContact

© 2026 ClearThesis, Inc.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. ClearThesis is not a registered investment adviser.

IBM

IBMIBM

$234.58
Updated Aug 7, 2026
Quality Score
3.9
Follow

Why IBM stock moved?

Updated Aug 7 at 11:19am ET.

$234.58
Loading…

What's happening with the stock

IBM rose about 0.5 percent today, continuing a week of modest gains after its sharp collapse in mid-July. We think this is mostly the whole market moving slightly higher today rather than any new company news.

Our view

A drop this size is no fun to sit through, but the shift toward software and consulting is still the part that matters most for the next few years. If you already own it, the best move is to sit tight and let the transition play out.

Read full thesis on IBM

Latest IBM updates

Follow IBM to never miss an important update.

IBM
Macro & policyWorth watching
Aug 7

President warns against over-regulating AI

President Trump stated that current congressional efforts to regulate artificial intelligence could effectively push the industry out of business. These comments come as lawmakers debate how to set guardrails around AI safety, data privacy, and copyright protections.

For a company like IBM, which has pivoted its entire growth strategy toward selling AI software and consulting to large corporations, the regulatory environment is a major factor. While strict rules can sometimes favor established players who have the resources to comply, overly aggressive regulation could slow down how quickly IBM's customers are willing to adopt new AI tools. We are watching this closely, as the balance between government oversight and industry growth will dictate how fast IBM can scale its Watsonx platform.

Source: Reuters

IBM
ProductFor the record
Aug 4

Free access to Lightwell for research and NGOs

IBM and its subsidiary Red Hat are offering Lightwell at no cost to research universities and nongovernmental organizations. Lightwell is a tool that uses AI to find and fix security weaknesses in open-source software, which is code that anyone can inspect or modify. While this is a philanthropic move rather than a direct profit driver, it helps cement IBM's role as a key supporter of the open-source community that many of its paid products rely on.

Source: PRNewsWire

IBM
Company newsPositive
Aug 2

CEO expects quantum growth by 2029

CEO Arvind Krishna stated that quantum computing, which uses advanced physics to solve problems too complex for today's computers, will start affecting the company's revenue and profit by 2028 or 2029. This provides a clearer timeline for a technology that has long been seen as a distant experiment.

For those holding the stock, this helps frame the next major chapter after the current shift into AI and cloud software. While it is still years away, the company is signaling that the heavy research spending on quantum is nearing the point where it becomes a real business.

IBM
Company newsPositive
Jul 31

Partnership for European banking platform

IBM is working with UniCredit and Accenture to develop a modern technology platform for European banking. This deal is a standard example of IBM's consulting and software strategy, where it helps large, regulated companies move their old systems into the cloud. It shows that despite recent concerns about hardware sales, big banks still rely on IBM for their most critical digital transitions.

Source: Business Wire

IBM
Company newsPositive
Jul 30

Quantum computers solve classically impossible problems

IBM and several research partners published results showing that today's quantum computers can already handle complex physics simulations that the most powerful traditional supercomputers cannot. This milestone is often called "quantum advantage," the point where these new machines become practically useful rather than just theoretical.

This is a significant technical win because it suggests quantum computing might become a commercial product sooner than the five-to-ten-year window many expected. It validates IBM's decision to keep investing in this hardware even as it pivots the rest of the company toward software.

Source: Business Wire

IBM analyst price targets

Analysts recently slashed their price targets for IBM following a flurry of negative reports and legal investigations. Most analysts remain split, with 24 buys against 27 neutral or bearish ratings, and the average target suggests 9% upside from here.

Average target$255.92+9%vs $234.58 today
Avg price
Low $175High $350
Hold51 analysts
5Bearish
22Neutral
24Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Susquehanna
Neutral
$303→$225
7/24/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$270→$230
7/23/2026
Goldman Sachs
—
$335→$270
7/23/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$293→$190
7/23/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$288→$262
7/23/2026
Robert W. Baird
Neutral
$230
7/21/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$270
7/21/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$350→$288
7/21/2026
Jefferies
Buy
$320→$260
7/21/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Buy
$235
7/20/2026
HSBC
Reduce
$191→$175
7/16/2026
Argus Research
Buy
$360→$280
7/16/2026

IBM earnings

IBM has a perfect record of meeting or beating expectations over the last two years. Management is very good at setting targets they know they can hit.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$1.34$2.97$4.60Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jul '26nextOct '26

IBM past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$2.93$2.93+0.0%
Revenue$17.46B$17.16B-1.7%

Key highlights

  • Revenue outlook raised: Management now expects full year revenue to grow between 4% and 5% excluding currency fluctuations, which is an improvement from the previous quarter. The company also confirmed it remains on track to increase its annual free cash flow, or the cash left after paying for operations and equipment, by about $1 billion.
  • Software growth continues: Software revenue grew 5% to $7.8 billion this quarter, supported by a 19% jump in data solutions and an 11% rise at Red Hat. This division is vital to the company because it carries a 82.6% gross profit margin, helping to fund investments in newer technologies like artificial intelligence.
  • Infrastructure sales dip: Revenue in the infrastructure segment fell 7% to $3.8 billion as sales of IBM Z mainframe computers dropped 42% compared to a year ago. These results often swing wildly based on where the company is in its multi-year product cycle, though parts of the business like Power and Storage grew at a record pace.
  • Consulting margins improving: Consulting revenue was nearly flat at $5.3 billion, but the profit margin for the segment rose to 28.9% from 27.5% a year ago. The company is using its own AI tools to automate internal tasks, which helped drive pre-tax income for the total business up 3% to $3.3 billion on an operating basis.
  • Heavy acquisition spending: IBM spent $10.5 billion on acquisitions during the first half of the year, including deals for HashiCorp and Confluent to expand its cloud software offerings. This aggressive spending reduced the cash on hand to $8.2 billion, down from $14.5 billion at the end of last year.

Our take: A steady quarter that shows the shift toward high-margin software is paying off even as older hardware lines fluctuate. Raising the full year revenue growth forecast to 4% or 5% signals confidence that AI demand is moving from testing to real-world use. This keeps the long-term transformation story firmly on track.

IBM’s next earnings date

Q3 2026
OCT
21
Expectation
EPS$2.90
Revenue$16.84B
AUG
10
Dividend payday
  • Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
Software Revenue Growth
Growing above 5% at constant currency
5% YoY in Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow Growth
Increasing by at least $1 billion annually
Flat YoY in H1 2026
Consulting Book of Business
Maintaining positive growth in AI-related contract signings
4% growth in Q1 2026
Red Hat Growth
Staying above 10% for consecutive quarters
11% YoY in Q2 2026

More IBM coverage from around the web

$IBM Investigation News: IBM Securities Fraud Investigation is Ongoing – Contact BFA Law if You Suffered Losses

GlobeNewsWire · Press release · Aug 7

INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of International Business Machines Corporation - IBM

PRNewsWire · Press release · Aug 6

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) $68 Billion Wipeout Amid Z Shortfall Triggers Investigation - HBSS

PRNewsWire · Press release · Aug 6

IBM: New And Agile Is Nice, But Don't Underestimate Classic Size And Power

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 5

IBM Legal News: IBM Hit with Securities Fraud Investigation over Alleged Misrepresentations about its IBM Z Product Slowdown – Contact BFA Law

GlobeNewsWire · Press release · Aug 5

IBM CEO Foresees Quantum Computing Growth by 2029

PYMNTS · Aug 2

Stay on top of IBM

Follow IBM to get the latest and most important updates.

Follow IBM

On this page

Full thesisFollow IBM