Intel rose about 1 percent today, continuing a slow recovery after a month of heavy swings, and sits about 6 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly the whole market moving higher today, as chip stocks broadly rose more than the major indexes.
Our view
Intel is finally seeing the sales growth it needs, but the cost of building its own factories is still eating up massive amounts of cash. Owners should sit tight and wait for more proof that outside customers are signing up for those new plants.
Elon Musk stated that SpaceX will exclusively use chips from Nvidia, bypassing alternatives from rivals like Intel and AMD. While SpaceX is just one customer, the decision highlights the intense preference for Nvidia's hardware in high-performance computing and aerospace applications.
For Intel, this is a reminder of the steep climb it faces to win over top-tier tech leaders. The company is currently spending billions to build out its foundry business, which aims to manufacture chips designed by other firms. Losing out on a high-profile user like SpaceX suggests that Intel still has work to do to prove its technology can compete with the current industry standard.
Chip sector struggles on AI profitability concerns
Shares of Intel and its peers dropped as concerns grew over how quickly companies can turn their massive spending on AI into actual profits. Weakness in the semiconductor market in South Korea added to the cautious mood. Intel is in a unique position because it is spending heavily on new factories to build chips for others. If the broader demand for AI hardware cooling off, it could make it harder for Intel to find enough customers to fill those expensive new plants. This is a key risk to watch as the company tries to turn its business around.
Company newsPositive
Jul 29
Intel shares processor tech with new startup
Intel has granted a new startup access to some of its proprietary processor technology. While the specific startup and terms were not disclosed, such deals are uncommon for Intel and suggest a more open approach to its intellectual property.
This move aligns with Intel's broader goal of becoming a major manufacturer for other chip designers. By sharing its technology, Intel can help build an ecosystem of companies that rely on its standards and factories. If these startups grow, they could become long-term customers for Intel's multi-billion dollar manufacturing plants.
A company called mimik is launching software that turns Intel-powered PCs into nodes for AI workloads. This allows AI tasks to run directly on the computer rather than relying on expensive cloud servers. This is a small but positive step for Intel's "AI PC" strategy. As more software developers build tools specifically for Intel hardware, it makes those computers more valuable to businesses and consumers. Intel is counting on this new category of PCs to help revive its core business while it builds out its new manufacturing arm.
Design software certified for Intel's latest processes
Keysight, a firm that makes engineering tools, has certified its software for Intel Foundry's newest manufacturing processes, known as 14A and 18A. This gives chip designers a reliable way to test their designs before they are actually manufactured. This is a necessary technical milestone for Intel's turnaround. To attract big customers like Apple or Nvidia, Intel must ensure that the industry's standard design tools work perfectly with its factories. Certification from firms like Keysight helps reduce the risk for outside companies considering using Intel to build their chips.
Analysts issued a flurry of price target adjustments and rating updates on July 24. Most analysts are split, with 32 recommending a buy, while the average target of $110 suggests a modest 9% upside from the current price.
Average target$110.41+9%vs $101.65 today
Avg price
Low $60High $200
Hold85 analysts
7Bearish
46Neutral
32Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Bernstein
Market Perform
$110
7/27/2026
D.A. Davidson
—
$100
7/24/2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
Neutral
$150→$125
7/24/2026
Wedbush
Neutral
$60→$98
7/24/2026
Robert W. Baird
Neutral
$125
7/24/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Hold
$120→$110
7/24/2026
Rosenblatt Securities
Sell
$80
7/24/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$75→$84
7/24/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$125
7/24/2026
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
$110→$120
7/24/2026
Seaport Global
—
$125
7/24/2026
Mizuho Securities
Neutral
$109
7/24/2026
Intel earnings
Intel has beaten profit expectations for four straight quarters, often by a wide margin. This suggests management is getting better at controlling costs even while spending heavily on new technology.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Intel past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.21
$0.42
+100.0%
Revenue
$14.43B
$16.13B
+11.7%
Key highlights
Data center growth accelerating: Sales of chips for data centers, which are the large facilities that power the internet, grew 59% to $6.3 billion compared to the same period last year. This surge suggests the company is successfully winning back market share as more businesses buy hardware to run artificial intelligence programs.
Manufacturing losses narrowing: The division that builds chips for outside customers, known as the foundry, reported an operating loss of $2.1 billion. This is a significant improvement from the $3.2 billion loss it reported a year ago and shows the company is becoming more efficient as it scales up its factory network.
Profitability bounce back: The gross margin, which is the percentage of sales left after paying the direct costs of making products, rose to 41.8% from 29.7% last year. This recovery shows that better factory performance and higher sales volumes are making the business more profitable again.
Positive revenue outlook: Management expects revenue for the next three months to fall between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion, which is higher than what analysts were looking for. This forecast indicates that the recent growth in demand for both personal computer and data center chips is expected to continue.
Expansion investment rising: The company is spending $5 billion to expand its factories for its newest server chips, which are the brains of modern high performance computers. Investing in these facilities is the core of the company's plan to lead the industry in advanced chip making technology.
Our take: A powerhouse quarter that signals the company's turnaround is entering a faster phase. The 59% growth in data center chips and the steady improvement in factory losses show management is finally executing on its complicated plan. This result strengthens the case that the company can thrive in the AI era.
Intel’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
22
Expectation
EPS
$0.39
Revenue
$16.29B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Foundry Operating Margin
Rising toward breakeven from current deep quarterly losses