Samsara jumped about 7 percent today to hit a new record high, capping off a week where the stock climbed 14 percent. We think this is mostly about a broader recovery in software stocks, as the whole market rose on news of a cooling jobs market.
Our view
The business is growing its revenue from large customers at a very fast clip while also becoming more profitable. If you already own it, there's nothing to do here but sit tight and let the growth play out.
The company has set the date for its next financial update. This will be an important check on whether the business is maintaining its high growth rate. We will be looking for updates on annual recurring revenue, which is the predictable yearly income from its software subscriptions, and whether it is continuing to sign up more large customers.
This target is higher than the average analyst estimate of $41. It reflects confidence in the company's ability to keep growing its revenue by selling more sensors and software to industrial firms. When analysts set a target, they are estimating what they think the stock will be worth in about a year based on the company's expected profits and growth.
This target suggests the firm sees the stock as undervalued at its current price. It indicates a belief that the company can continue to expand its margins, which is a measure of how much profit it keeps from every dollar of sales, as it reaches a larger scale.
The company is shifting its image from a simple tracking tool to a more advanced system that uses AI to manage industrial workflows. While a brand change does not change the financial numbers, it signals that management is leaning into AI as the main way they will win new customers and keep existing ones over the next decade.
The report argues that the true cost of losing gear is much higher than just the price of replacing it because it also disrupts work and wastes time. This is a classic sales strategy for the company. By putting a large dollar figure on the problem, they make a stronger case for why businesses should pay for their tracking and security software to prevent these losses.
Analysts have recently updated their outlooks following the company's annual meeting and brand evolution announcement. Most analysts, 14 of 18, rate the stock a buy, with the average target of $42 suggesting the price is currently fair.
Average target$42.17+3%vs $40.88 today
Avg price
Low $30High $48
Strong Buy18 analysts
0Bearish
4Neutral
14Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Guggenheim
Buy
$45
7/22/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$43
7/21/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$42
6/5/2026
UBS
—
$48
3/6/2026
Goldman Sachs
—
$45
3/2/2026
Truist Financial
Hold
$39→$30
2/17/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$46→$35
2/11/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$36
2/11/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$49→$37
2/6/2026
BNP Paribas
Outperform
$40
1/15/2026
RBC Capital
Outperform
$50→$46
1/5/2026
BTIG
Buy
$55
12/16/2025
Samsara earnings
The company has beaten earnings expectations every single quarter for the last two years. This shows management is excellent at setting targets they can consistently clear.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Samsara past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.13
$0.17
+30.6%
Revenue
$455M
$479M
+5.2%
Key highlights
Profitability milestones reached: The company reported GAAP net income, which is the total profit after all expenses, of $0.08 per share. This marks the third consecutive quarter that the business has been profitable under standard accounting rules, a significant shift from the loss of $0.04 per share reported one year ago.
Operating margins expanding: The non-GAAP operating margin, a measure of profit from core operations that excludes one-time costs, reached 19% this quarter. This is a sharp increase from the 14% margin seen in the same period last year, showing that the company is becoming much more efficient as it grows.
Strong recurring revenue growth: Annual recurring revenue reached $1.991 billion, representing 30% growth compared to the same time last year. This growth was fueled by $100.7 million in net new recurring contracts signed during the quarter, indicating continued high demand for the company's tracking and safety software.
Legal win adds cash: The company recognized a $30.3 million gain following a successful arbitration award against a competitor, Motive Technologies. This award for breach of contract and fraud helped boost the bottom line and contributed to the $73.2 million in adjusted free cash flow generated this quarter.
Revenue outlook remains steady: Management expects full year revenue to land between $2.005 billion and $2.013 billion, which would be 24% growth over last year. They also project a non-GAAP operating margin of 20% for the full year, suggesting that the company plans to maintain its current level of operational efficiency through 2027.
Our take: A very strong quarter that proves this business can grow rapidly while actually making money. Crossing the $2 billion recurring revenue mark with a 19% operating margin shows the platform is scaling efficiently. This performance strengthens the long-term case that the company is becoming the essential software layer for physical industries.
