Intuitive Machines rose about 7 percent today, its seventh straight day of gains, and has now fully recovered from its July slump. We think this is mostly about a string of positive news, including a new missile defense contract and the completion of two satellite firm acquisitions.
Our view
Winning a role in missile defense shows this is more than just a moon-lander company. If you have been thinking about buying, the recent recovery has brought the price back to a reasonable spot for the long term.
Intuitive Machines is scheduled to report its quarterly results on August 13. Analysts are looking for revenue of about 220 million dollars and a loss of roughly 9 cents per share.
Beyond the numbers, the focus will likely be on the company's progress with its upcoming lunar lander missions and the rollout of its satellite communication network. These projects are the main drivers of the company's long-term goal to provide the infrastructure for lunar exploration.
Selected to build satellite platforms for missile defense
The company will support L3Harris in building spacecraft platforms for the Space Development Agency. This mission focuses on tracking and defending against advanced missile threats.
This is a win for the company because it shows they can win business beyond lunar landings. By building hardware for defense satellites, they are diversifying their revenue and proving their technology works for critical government security needs.
The company has officially closed its deals to buy Goonhilly Earth Station in the UK and COMSAT in the US. These firms specialize in deep space communications, which involves managing the data sent between Earth and crafts far out in space.
This is a key part of the company's plan to own the infrastructure of the lunar economy. By owning these ground stations, they can charge others for the data and navigation services needed to operate on the Moon, rather than just relying on one-off landing contracts.
This filing provides the formal paperwork for the company's recent moves, including its new satellite work and the closing of its latest acquisitions. While the filing itself is a routine legal step, it confirms that these agreements are now officially in place. There are no new financial surprises here beyond what was already shared in recent news.
Major shareholder Advent International sells $147 million in stock
Advent International, a private equity firm that owns a large stake in the company, sold about 147 million dollars worth of shares. This is a large sale, but it is common for early institutional backers to sell down their positions to lock in gains after a company has been public for a while.
While a sale this size can put temporary downward pressure on the stock price, it does not necessarily mean the firm has lost faith in the business. It is often just a routine part of how these large investment firms manage their own portfolios.
Intuitive Machines analyst price targets
Analysts have recently issued a flurry of price target increases for the stock. Nine of 11 analysts rate it a buy, and the average target of $42 suggests the stock could rise 164% from its current price.
Average target$42+164%vs $15.94 today
TodayAvg price
Low $27High $75
Strong Buy11 analysts
1Bearish
1Neutral
9Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Roth Capital
Buy
$50→$75
5/27/2026
Deutsche Bank
Buy
$22→$34
5/20/2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
$26→$43
5/19/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Hold
$22→$32
5/15/2026
Canaccord Genuity
Buy
$24→$41
5/15/2026
Roth Capital
Buy
$35→$50
5/14/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$26→$27
4/29/2026
Roth Capital
Buy
$25→$35
4/17/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$20→$26
1/28/2026
Canaccord Genuity
Buy
$15.50→$22.50
1/12/2026
Stifel Nicolaus
Hold
$20
1/9/2026
KeyBanc
Overweight
$20
12/18/2025
Intuitive Machines earnings
The company has a choppy track record, often reporting larger losses than expected as it spends heavily to scale up its space infrastructure.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Intuitive Machines past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$-0.04
$-0.25
-485.1%
Revenue
$203M
$187M
-8.0%
Key highlights
Strong revenue outlook: Management expects full year 2026 revenue to land between $900 million and $1 billion, which would be a massive jump from the $79.5 million the company brought in during the 2024 calendar year. This forecast suggests the business is successfully moving from a research phase into a steady, large scale provider of space infrastructure.
Acquisitions driving scale: The $800 million purchase of Lanteris Space Systems helped push quarterly revenue to $186.7 million, nearly triple what it was at the same time last year. Even without including 12 days of results from the new business, the combined company hit record levels of sales and reached a positive adjusted EBITDA, which is a measure of profit before certain costs like interest and taxes, of $2.7 million.
Order backlog surging: The company ended the quarter with a record $1.1 billion in its backlog, which is the total value of signed work yet to be finished, marking an $842 million increase since the start of the year. This growth was fueled by the Lanteris deal and a new $116.9 million NASA contract for a larger cargo lunar lander.
Expanding government contracts: Intuitive Machines secured a spot on a government contract with a $6.2 billion ceiling to help the U.S. Space Force track objects in orbit. This award is the first to combine the company's traditional landing tech with the satellite capabilities it just acquired, showing that the merger is already helping win larger defense projects.
Our take: This was a strong quarter that shows the business is successfully transforming through its recent acquisition. While the net loss widened, the jump to $1.1 billion in backlog and the path to $900 million in annual revenue solidify the long term case for the company as a primary space infrastructure provider.
Intuitive Machines’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
13
Expectation
EPS
$-0.09
Revenue
$216M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Backlog Conversion
Revenue growing to meet the $0.9B FY2026 target
$186.7M in Q1 2026
Mission Success Rate
Successful landing of IM-2 and IM-3 missions
2 successful landings as of Q1 2026
Gross Margin
Staying above 25% during the production ramp
14.7% in Q1 2026
Near Space Network Milestones
Deployment of first relay satellites by 2026
Active in Q1 2026
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