After MARA reported its August results, we raised our projections for the cost to mine each Bitcoin and lowered our near-term targets for the total computing power used to secure the network. We added the revenue potential from the company selling its proprietary energy and blockchain software to third parties to what we track. Our updated thesis also includes the new sovereign cloud business in Europe and the expanded total power rights that now reach 4.8 gigawatts. We increased our expectations for administrative spending to account for the costs of integrating recent acquisitions and higher headcount.
MARA analyst price targets
Average target$13.50+93%vs $6.99 today
TodayAvg price
Low $10High $20
Hold22 analysts
2Bearish
11Neutral
9Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Compass Point
Neutral
$20
11/10/2026
Rosenblatt Securities
Buy
$11
11/10/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$13→$11
10/20/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$11→$10
10/9/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$6→$11
9/18/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$5.50→$6
8/13/2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
$14→$12
8/7/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$16→$13
7/17/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$7→$5.50
7/8/2026
Bernstein
Market Perform
$23→$17
6/3/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$8.50→$7
5/19/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$8→$8.50
4/27/2026
MARA earnings
The company has a choppy track record, missing expectations in five of the last eight quarters. This makes it difficult to rely on management's short-term forecasts until they show more consistent execution.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
MARA past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$0.17
$-1.60
-1060.4%
Revenue
$209M
$175M
-16.5%
Key highlights
Bitcoin price drop hits earnings: The company reported a net loss of $611.3 million, which is a sharp reversal from the $808.2 million profit a year ago. Management attributed this $1.4 billion swing mostly to a $343 million drop in the market value of its Bitcoin holdings as the price of the digital currency fell 28% during the period.
Mining efficiency improving: The cost to process data, or cost per petahash per day, improved by 4% to $27.7 compared to $28.7 last year. This lower cost helped the company produce 2,422 Bitcoin this quarter, which is a 3% increase over the same period last year despite higher global competition.
Operating expenses scaling up: General and administrative costs rose to $69.5 million from $40.1 million last year as the company grew its headcount and global footprint. This total includes $15.4 million for buying and integrating new businesses and a $10.2 million payment to settle a patent lawsuit.
Power costs rising: Energy costs for company-owned sites reached $48.8 million, up from $41.7 million a year ago. While the cost per kilowatt hour stayed flat at $0.04, the total bill grew because the company expanded its fleet and faced higher power prices caused by extreme weather.
Strategic push into AI: The company is expanding its power portfolio to 4.8 gigawatts, which is more than double its current size, by securing rights to a new 2 gigawatt site in Texas. Management expects this massive power capacity will allow them to sign at least one lease for an artificial intelligence data center before the end of 2026.
Our take: A weak quarter that reflects the volatility of the company's transition from a pure Bitcoin miner to a power infrastructure provider. The massive $611.3 million loss is a reminder that earnings are currently tied to Bitcoin prices, but the push to secure 4.8 gigawatts of power capacity is the real long term story here.
MARA’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
NOV
3
Expectation
EPS
$-0.33
Revenue
$184M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Energized Hashrate
Reaching 85 EH/s by end of 2026
70.3 EH/s in Q2 2026
Energy Cost per kWh
Dropping to $0.035 for owned sites
$0.04 in Q2 2026
AI/HPC Leased Capacity
Signing first 100 MW of third-party tenants
0 MW in Q2 2026
Cost to Mine per BTC
Sustaining levels below $35,000
$38,690 in Q2 2026
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