The stock fell about 2 percent today, its second straight down day, and has now lost about 15 percent of its value over the last month. We think this is mostly about caution ahead of the company's earnings report this evening, especially since the broader market was quiet today.
Our view
The company is trying to move beyond just mining Bitcoin by owning its own power plants and data centers, but it still hasn't proven it can do so profitably. If you already own it, there is nothing to do today but wait for the results this evening to see if that shift is actually working.
The company reports its latest results today after the market closes. Analysts expect earnings of about 17 cents per share, though the company has only beaten expectations once in the last two years.
Beyond the numbers, the focus is on how well the company is shifting from just mining Bitcoin to owning the power plants and data centers that run it. We are watching for updates on energy costs and whether they have signed any new deals to host AI computing, which could provide a more stable source of cash than the volatile crypto market.
The company appointed Craig Hart and Nancy Novak to its board of directors. Both have experience in energy investing and building large-scale data centers, which are the massive facilities that house computer systems.
This move supports the company's plan to own more of its own power and infrastructure. Having experts in these fields on the board helps as the company tries to expand beyond Bitcoin mining and into the competitive market for AI data centers.
Piper Sandler lowered its price target for the stock by about 19 percent. While the firm still recommends owning the shares, the lower target suggests they see less room for the stock to rise in the near term than they did before. This comes as the company works through its transition into a broader digital infrastructure business.
The company reached an agreement with HIF to take over a strategic site in Texas with access to about 2 gigawatts of power capacity. For context, that is enough electricity to power over a million homes, making it a significant addition to their infrastructure.
This deal is a major step in the company's pivot toward owning its own power sources. By controlling the land and the electricity, they can lower the costs of mining Bitcoin and potentially build out new space for AI and high-performance computing.
Morgan Stanley analysts reduced their price target by about 21 percent, which is significantly lower than where the stock currently trades. They kept an Underweight rating, which is their way of saying they expect the stock to perform worse than others in the market. This reflects a skeptical view of the company's ability to generate value compared to its current price.
Analysts have recently lowered their price targets following a steady stream of updates throughout the year. Ten of the 20 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $11 suggests a modest 7% upside from today's price.
Average target$11.38+7%vs $10.65 today
Avg price
Low $5.50High $17
Buy20 analysts
1Bearish
9Neutral
10Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$16→$13
7/17/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$7→$5.50
7/8/2026
Bernstein
—
$23→$17
6/3/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$8.50→$7
5/19/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$8→$8.50
4/27/2026
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
$11→$10
4/9/2026
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
$8
2/9/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$26→$16
1/14/2026
Compass Point
Neutral
$30
11/24/2025
Compass Point
Neutral
$25
11/21/2024
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
$33
11/13/2024
Bernstein
—
$23
10/14/2024
Marathon Digital earnings
The company has missed analyst profit targets in seven of the last eight quarters. This suggests the business is much harder to predict than Wall Street currently expects.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Marathon Digital past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$-0.46
$-0.61
-32.6%
Revenue
$182M
$175M
-4.0%
Key highlights
Bitcoin price drop impact: The company reported a massive net loss of $1.3 billion, which was driven by a $1.0 billion drop in the value of its Bitcoin holdings as the market price fell 22% during the quarter.
Computing power expanding: Energized hashrate, which measures the total computing power used to mine Bitcoin, grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s compared to the same time last year.
Data center acquisition: Marathon signed a deal to buy the Long Ridge site, which includes a power plant with 505 megawatts of capacity to support new AI and high performance computing projects.
Cost efficiency improving: The cost to run the mining network improved 3% to $27.60 per petahash per day, and a 15% workforce reduction is expected to save $12 million every year.
Strategic AI pivot: Management expects to sign at least one major tenant lease by the end of 2026 as it converts 90% of its non-hosted power capacity for use in AI data centers.
Our take: This was a difficult quarter that highlighted the risks of holding Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset. While the mining business is becoming more efficient, the huge swings in crypto prices are masking operational progress. The pivot toward AI data centers is the right long-term move to stabilize the business.
Marathon Digital’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
6
Expectation
EPS
$0.17
Revenue
$209M
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Energized Hashrate
Staying above 85 EH/s through the end of 2026
72.2 EH/s in Q1 2026
Energy Cost
Average cost per kWh remaining below $0.035 for owned sites
$0.04 per kWh in Q1 2026
AI Power Capacity
Signing at least 100 MW of power under lease
0 MW under signed lease as of Q1 2026
BTC Per Share
Maintaining or increasing Bitcoin holdings per outstanding share
35,303 total BTC as of Q1 2026
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