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MP

MP MaterialsMP

$51.35
Updated Aug 7, 2026
Quality Score
3.0
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Why MP Materials stock moved?

Updated Aug 7 at 11:20am ET.

$51.35
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What's happening with the stock

MP Materials rose about 3 percent today, continuing a sharp week-long rally that has pushed the stock to a new recent high. We think this is mostly about the company's latest results, which showed it is producing significantly more refined metals and winning new aerospace customers.

Our view

The company is successfully making more refined metals, but it is still spending a lot of cash to build its factories while waiting for metal prices to recover. If you have been thinking about buying it, we would wait for a better price that accounts for these risks.

Read full thesis on MP Materials

Latest MP Materials updates

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MP
EarningsPositive
Aug 7

Production of key rare earth metals rose 41 percent last quarter

MP Materials brought in about 109 million dollars in revenue last quarter, which was better than the 100 million dollars analysts expected. The company is in the middle of a difficult shift from just digging ore out of the ground to refining it into the high-value metals used in electric vehicle motors and wind turbines. Production of these refined metals, specifically neodymium-praseodymium, rose 41 percent compared to the same time last year.

This growth is important because it shows the company is successfully scaling its refinery operations even while market prices for these metals remain low. It also signed a new long-term deal to supply gadolinium, another rare earth metal, to a U.S. aerospace and defense customer. While the company is still losing a small amount of money per share, the jump in production and new sales agreements suggest it is becoming a more capable manufacturer.

See the full quarter, and how our tracked metrics did

Source: 8-K filing

MP
Company newsFor the record
Aug 4

A new rare earth plant begins construction in Utah

Energy Fuels has begun building a commercial-scale expansion at its Utah mill to process heavy rare earth metals. These materials are essential for high-tech manufacturing and are currently sourced almost entirely from China.

While this adds a new player to the American supply chain, it also means more competition for MP Materials. MP currently operates the only scaled rare earth mine in North America, but its lead depends on staying ahead of these emerging domestic rivals as the U.S. tries to reduce its reliance on foreign minerals.

Source: Forbes

MP
Company newsWorth watching
Jul 20

Oversupply fears weigh on rare earth miners

A new report from the International Energy Agency suggests that the supply of rare earth metals from mines outside of China could triple over the next decade. This potential surge in supply has caused some concern that the market could become overstocked.

For MP Materials, this is a double-edged sword. While it shows the world is moving to secure these metals, a glut of supply would likely keep prices low. Since MP's profits depend heavily on the market price of neodymium-praseodymium, a long period of high supply and low prices would make it harder for the company to earn a profit.

Source: Investors Business Daily

MP
Company newsFor the record
Jul 16

Second quarter results scheduled for August 6

The company will share its financial performance for the second quarter on Thursday afternoon. Management will also host a call to discuss the numbers and provide an update on their progress. This update is particularly important as the company works to transition from a simple miner to a manufacturer of finished magnets. We will be watching for any news on production volumes and whether the company is seeing any relief from the low metal prices that have hurt its earnings recently.

Source: Business Wire

MP
Analyst price updatePositive
Jul 8

Morgan Stanley raises its target to $71.50

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for MP Materials from $70 to $71.50, keeping a positive rating on the stock. This suggests the firm remains confident in the company's long-term direction despite the current volatility in metal prices. While the target change is small, it reflects a view that the company's value is higher than the current market price of about $48. The firm likely sees the company's unique position as the only major U.S. producer of these critical minerals as a key advantage that will eventually be rewarded.

Source: Morgan Stanley

MP Materials analyst price targets

Analysts have consistently maintained their positive outlook on the company throughout the summer. Nearly all 14 analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average price target of $81 suggests a 57% increase from the current price.

Average target$80.70+57%vs $51.35 today
TodayAvg price
Low $69High $100
Strong Buy14 analysts
0Bearish
1Neutral
13Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$70→$71.50
7/8/2026
Needham
Buy
$81
6/1/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$69
5/21/2026
Wedbush
Outperform
$90→$100
5/8/2026
Canaccord Genuity
Buy
$79→$82
5/8/2026
Wedbush
Outperform
$90
4/20/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$71
12/5/2025
BMO Capital
Outperform
$75
11/24/2025
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$77
11/19/2025
BMO Capital
Outperform
$76
10/9/2025
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$65→$69
10/8/2025
Daiwa
Outperform
$80
9/22/2025

MP Materials earnings

Management has beaten expectations for five straight quarters, showing they can grow production volumes even when the prices they get for their metals are falling.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$-0.20$-0.05$0.10Nov '24Feb '25May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26

MP Materials past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$-0.01$-0.01+0.6%
Revenue$97M$108M+12.0%

Key highlights

  • Refined production ramping up: Production of NdPr oxide, the refined rare earth material used in high tech motors, grew 41% to 840 metric tons compared to the same time last year. This shows the company is successfully shifting its focus from selling raw minerals to producing the more valuable separated materials.
  • Sales volume more than doubled: The company sold 1,006 metric tons of NdPr products, a 127% increase over the 443 metric tons sold a year ago. Higher volumes and better market prices helped drive total revenue to $108.5 million, up 89% from last year.
  • New aerospace defense contract: Management signed a long term deal to supply a new American aerospace and defense customer with gadolinium, a heavy rare earth material. Expanding into these specialized materials helps the business move beyond its core neodymium products and into high value military and flight applications.
  • Magnet segment expansion costs: Start up costs jumped to $14.4 million from just $761,000 last year as the company prepares its Texas facility for commercial magnet production. These costs contributed to a net loss of $20.3 million, though this was still an improvement over the $30.9 million loss reported in the prior year.
  • Magnet production timeline confirmed: The company confirmed it will begin manufacturing neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in December 2025 at its Independence facility. This is a critical milestone for the strategy to become a fully integrated supplier that controls everything from the mine to the finished magnet.

Our take: This was a productive quarter that showed the company is successfully making the difficult transition to a refined chemical producer. Growing refined production by 41% is the right signal for the long term case, as it proves the technology works at scale. While start up costs remain high, the progress toward finished magnet production in late 2025 keeps the growth story on track.

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
NdPr Production Volume
Reaching 6,000 metric tons of separated oxide annually
840 metric tons in Q2 2026
Realized Sales Price
Stabilizing above $60 per kilogram of NdPr oxide
$108.5M revenue on 1,006 MT in Q2 2026
Stage 3 Revenue
First meaningful revenue from magnet sales in late 2025
$0 reported as of Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow
Trending toward break-even as capital spending on factories peaks
-$302.8M for first half of 2026

More MP Materials coverage from around the web

MP Materials Corp. (MP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 7

MP Materials Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results

Business Wire · Press release · Aug 6

MP Materials Announces Date for Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Webcast

Business Wire · Press release · Jul 16

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