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MPC

Marathon PetroleumMPC

$299.25
Updated Aug 6, 2026
Quality Score
3.6
Follow

Why Marathon Petroleum stock moved?

Updated Aug 6 at 1:54pm ET.

$299.25
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What's happening with the stock

The stock rose about 0.2 percent today, its first gain after a sharp drop yesterday, and it remains about 7 percent below its July high. This looks like a quiet day of normal trading after a busy week where the company reported profits that more than quadrupled.

Our view

The company is bringing in massive amounts of cash because the gap between oil prices and fuel prices is at historic highs. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let the buybacks work.

Read full thesis on Marathon Petroleum

Latest Marathon Petroleum updates

Follow Marathon Petroleum to never miss an important update.

MPC
Analyst price updatePositive
Aug 6

Barclays raises price target to $321

Barclays raised its price target from $289 to $321 following the company's recent performance. This target is about 8 percent higher than the current stock price.

The move suggests analysts see more room for the stock to grow even after its recent gains. This confidence often stems from the company's ability to generate high levels of cash and return it to shareholders through buybacks, which reduces the total number of shares and makes each remaining share more valuable.

Source: Barclays

MPC
Macro & policyPositive
Aug 6

Oil prices rise on potential shipping restrictions in the Middle East

Crude oil prices climbed on Thursday following reports that Iran has drafted a plan to place new conditions on ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a vital choke point for global energy supplies, as a large portion of the world's oil passes through it daily.

For a refiner like Marathon, higher oil prices can be a double-edged sword, but supply disruptions often lead to higher prices for finished fuels like gasoline and diesel. If the cost of fuel rises faster than the cost of the crude oil used to make it, the company's profit margins can widen significantly.

Source: CNBC

MPC
EarningsPositive
Aug 4

Quarterly profit more than quadruples on high refining margins

Marathon delivered a massive earnings beat for the second quarter, reporting $17.73 per share compared to the $14.27 that analysts expected. Revenue reached $52.34 billion, also well ahead of the $40.87 billion forecast. The surge was driven by high refining margins, the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of the fuels made from it, which reached multi-year highs due to geopolitical conflict.

The company used this windfall to return $2.8 billion to shareholders during the quarter. It also completed upgrades at its El Paso and Robinson refineries, which should help it produce more high-value fuels. While these exceptionally high margins may not last forever, the company is using the extra cash to strengthen its business and its midstream arm, MPLX, which provides a steadier stream of income from pipelines and storage.

See the full quarter, and how our tracked metrics did

Source: 8-K filing

MPC
Company newsFor the record
Jul 29

Quarterly dividend set at $1.00 per share

Marathon's board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share. This payment is part of the company's established practice of sharing profits with its owners. While dividends are a key way the company rewards shareholders, Marathon has recently focused more of its excess cash on buying back its own stock. This combination of a steady dividend and aggressive buybacks is a central part of why many investors hold the stock.

Source: PRNewsWire

Marathon Petroleum analyst price targets

Analysts have issued a flurry of price target increases following the company's strong second-quarter earnings report. Most analysts, 25 of 33, rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $312 suggests about 4% upside from today's price.

Average target$311.90+4%vs $299.25 today
Avg price
Low $225High $359
Strong Buy33 analysts
0Bearish
8Neutral
25Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Piper Sandler
Neutral
$343→$344
8/6/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$289→$321
8/6/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$300→$330
8/5/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$344→$359
8/5/2026
Piper Sandler
Neutral
$343
7/23/2026
Raymond James
Outperform
$300→$335
7/13/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$270→$289
7/13/2026
Jefferies
—
$296→$335
7/12/2026
UBS
Buy
$321
7/10/2026
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$335→$344
6/15/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$233→$265
6/12/2026
Mizuho Securities
Neutral
$224→$284
5/27/2026

Marathon Petroleum earnings

Management has a habit of clearing the bar, beating analyst profit targets in seven of the last eight quarters. The most recent beat was particularly large, showing the business is outrunning even bullish forecasts.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$-1.00$8.59$18.19Nov '24Feb '25May '25Aug '25Nov '25Feb '26May '26Aug '26nextNov '26

Marathon Petroleum past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$14.27$17.73+24.2%
Revenue$40.87B$52.34B+28.1%

Key highlights

  • Refining margins surge: The margin per barrel of oil refined more than doubled to $36.33, up from $17.58 a year ago. This increase was driven by higher crack spreads, which is the difference between the cost of crude oil and the market price of the fuels made from it.
  • Refining segment profit jumps: Profit in the refining and marketing business reached $6.7 billion, a significant jump from $1.9 billion in the same quarter last year. These results were supported by maintaining a 94% utilization rate across the company's 13 refineries.
  • Massive capital returns: The company sent $2.8 billion back to shareholders this quarter through dividends and share buybacks. Management still has $6.1 billion left in its current plan to buy back more shares, which helps increase the value of each remaining share over time.
  • Midstream expansion acceleration: The pipeline and processing division, known as MPLX, raised its 2026 growth spending budget by $500 million to a new total of $2.9 billion. This extra money will go toward finishing natural gas projects in Texas and New Mexico faster to meet high global demand.
  • Next quarter production outlook: For the upcoming third quarter, the company expects to process about 3,005,000 barrels of oil and other materials per day. Management also projected that refining operating costs will be $5.60 per barrel, roughly in line with the $5.72 spent this quarter.

Our take: A standout quarter that shows exactly how much cash this business can generate when refining margins are high. While processing costs rose slightly, the massive $2.8 billion returned to shareholders proves management is sticking to its promise of sharing the wins. This performance reinforces the case for owning a leader in the energy infrastructure space.

Marathon Petroleum’s next earnings date

Q3 2026
NOV
3
Expectation
EPS$17.71
Revenue$42.87B
AUG
19
Dividend payday
  • Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
Refinery Utilization
Sustaining utilization above 90% across the 13 facilities
94% in Q2 2026
MPLX Adjusted EBITDA
Growing above $1.7 billion per quarter on a sustained basis
$1.78 billion in Q2 2026
Distributable Cash Flow
Staying above $1.4 billion per quarter at the subsidiary level
$1.41 billion in Q1 2026
Crack Spread Margin
Maintaining a gross margin per barrel above $15
$36.33 per barrel in Q2 2026

More Marathon Petroleum coverage from around the web

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 4

Marathon Petroleum beats quarterly profit estimates on refining margin boom

Reuters · Aug 4

Marathon Petroleum Corp. Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Results

PRNewsWire · Press release · Aug 4

Marathon Petroleum Corp. Announces Quarterly Dividend

PRNewsWire · Press release · Jul 29

Marathon Petroleum: Focus On Russia, Not Just Iran

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Jul 7

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