Follow Moderna to never miss an important update.
Moderna announced that detailed data from its Phase 3 trial for a personalized cancer vaccine will be presented at the ESMO Congress on October 24. This treatment, which uses mRNA technology to help the immune system target specific tumors after surgery, is a central part of the company's plan to grow beyond COVID vaccines.
While we already knew the trial was successful, the full presentation will give doctors and analysts a closer look at how well the treatment actually worked. Success here would prove that the company's platform can be used to treat existing diseases like cancer, not just prevent viral infections.
Moderna and its partner Merck have successfully completed a Phase 3 trial for a personalized cancer vaccine. This is the final and most important stage of testing before a drug can be approved for sale. The treatment uses artificial intelligence to analyze a patient's specific tumor and create a custom medicine designed to help their own immune system fight it.
This is a major win for the company because it proves its mRNA technology can work for complex diseases like cancer, not just for viruses like COVID-19. If regulators approve the treatment, it would open up a massive new source of revenue and validate the idea that Moderna can use its platform to launch a wide range of different medicines.
Moderna's chairman recently discussed the progress of a Phase 3 trial for a cancer vaccine developed alongside Merck. This treatment is personalized, meaning it is designed to target the specific mutations in a patient's own tumor to help prevent melanoma, a type of skin cancer, from coming back after surgery.
This is a major part of the company's plan to prove its mRNA technology works for more than just viruses. While the stock has struggled as COVID vaccine demand dropped, success in oncology would open up a massive new market and show that the company's platform can be used to treat a wide range of diseases.
Rothschild & Co changed its view on the company from neutral to sell on Thursday. This is a notable shift because the stock has risen sharply recently, now trading around $143, which is significantly higher than the $116 average price target set by analysts who follow the company.
When a firm moves to a sell rating, it usually means they believe the stock has become too expensive relative to its actual business prospects. While Moderna is making progress on its new vaccines and cancer treatments, this downgrade suggests that the recent jump in the stock price may have moved faster than the company's progress in replacing its lost COVID revenue.
On September 1, Moderna finished a deal to borrow 3 billion dollars through convertible senior notes due in 2032. These are a type of debt that can be turned into shares of stock later if the price hits a certain level, in this case, about $210 per share. This final amount is higher than the 2 billion dollars the company originally planned to raise. Because these notes carry a 0 percent interest rate, they are a cheap way for the company to bring in cash. The trade-off for current owners is that if the stock price rises enough for these notes to convert into shares, it will create dilution, which means each existing share would own a slightly smaller piece of the company. For now, it provides a larger cash cushion as Moderna works to get its new flu and cancer therapies to market.
Source: 8-K filing
Management consistently sets a low bar and clears it by a wide margin, showing they have a firm handle on their costs even as the business shifts away from its pandemic peaks.
| Expectation | |
|---|---|
| EPS | $-1.10 |
| Revenue | $895M |