Clearthesis
Sign inSign up

Sign up free to access investment thesis for 500+ leading US stocks

AppleAppleMicrosoftMicrosoftNvidiaNvidiaAmazonAmazonAlphabetAlphabetMetaMetaTeslaTeslaBroadcomBroadcomAMDAMDTSMCTSMCArmArmQualcommQualcommMicronMicronMarvellMarvellOracleOracleAdobeAdobeSalesforceSalesforceServiceNowServiceNowCrowdStrikeCrowdStrikePalo AltoPalo AltoSpotifySpotifyCloudflareCloudflareShopifyShopifyVisaVisaMastercardMastercardRobinhoodRobinhoodCoinbaseCoinbasePalantirPalantirBerkshireBerkshireCostcoCostcoWalmartWalmartNetflixNetflixJPMorganJPMorgan
View all covered stocks →
Clearthesis
PrivacyTermsContact

© 2026 ClearThesis, Inc.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. ClearThesis is not a registered investment adviser.

NFLX

NetflixNFLX

$78.24
Updated Aug 13, 2026
Quality Score
4.6
Follow

Why Netflix stock moved?

Updated Aug 13 at 4:05pm ET.

$78.24
Loading…

What's happening with the stock

Netflix rose about 4 percent today, its best day in weeks, and has now won back all of its losses from the past month. We think this is mostly about billionaire Bill Ackman revealing a new stake in the company, which often gives a stock a short-term boost.

Our view

Netflix is the only major streaming player that has figured out how to turn a massive content budget into consistent cash flow. If you've been thinking about buying it, the current price is a fair one to pay for a business with this much scale.

Read full thesis on Netflix

Latest Netflix updates

Follow Netflix to never miss an important update.

NFLX
Company newsPositive
Aug 13

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman buys a stake in Netflix

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman has added Netflix to his portfolio as part of a significant update to his holdings. This move marks one of his largest shifts in years and signals confidence in the company's direction from a closely followed professional investor.

While one person buying a stock does not change the business itself, Ackman is known for taking large, concentrated bets on companies he believes have durable advantages. His backing often draws attention from other investors and can support the stock price as it suggests a sophisticated buyer sees the current price as a good value.

Source: Reuters

NFLX
Company newsPositive
Jul 31

Flipkart to offer Netflix mobile plans to loyalty members in India

Flipkart, the massive Indian e-commerce site owned by Walmart, is partnering with Netflix to offer mobile subscriptions as a reward for loyalty members. Customers who make four qualifying purchases will receive a month of access to the streaming service. This is a smart way for Netflix to reach more people in India, a critical growth market where competition for mobile users is high. By bundling with a major retailer, Netflix can lower the cost of finding new customers while making its service a routine part of their digital lives.

Source: Reuters

NFLX
Company newsPositive
Jul 30

Netflix secures global rights for The Walking Dead in $500 million deal

Netflix has signed a massive new licensing agreement with AMC to bring The Walking Dead Universe to its subscribers worldwide. The deal is reportedly worth about 500 million dollars and keeps the popular zombie franchise on the platform as a co-exclusive with AMC's own streaming service.

This move highlights why Netflix wins: it has the cash to buy the best content from rivals who need the money. Even as other networks try to build their own apps, they often find that selling their biggest hits to Netflix is the most profitable path. For Netflix, this adds a proven library that keeps members from canceling.

NFLX
Macro & policyWorth watching
Jul 27

Peacock lands on YouTube Premium, adding a new bundle rival

Bundling is a strategy where two services team up so subscribers get both for a single price, making it harder for people to cancel either one. By pairing Peacock with YouTube Premium, NBCUniversal and Google are making their combined offering more convenient and stickier. For Netflix, which does not participate in this kind of bundle, the deal is a mild negative at the margin: it gives a rival a distribution boost and could make some households feel less need to pay for an additional streaming service. That said, Netflix's scale and content budget remain in a different league, so this is worth watching rather than worrying about today.

Source: Reuters

NFLX
LegalWorth watching
Jul 25

Prediction market Kalshi demands Netflix pull a documentary trailer, calling it defamatory

A cease-and-desist letter is a legal warning that says "stop what you are doing or we will sue." Kalshi is claiming the trailer for Netflix's "Prediction Games" documentary is defamatory, meaning it makes false statements that damage the company's reputation. Netflix has not yet responded publicly. This is a minor legal skirmish at this stage, not a serious threat to the business, but it is worth watching to see whether it escalates into a lawsuit or forces Netflix to edit the documentary before release.

Netflix analyst price targets

Analysts issued a flurry of rating updates and price target cuts on July 17. Most analysts remain positive, with 63 of 99 rating the stock a buy and an average target of $92, which is 17% above the current price.

Average target$91.82+17%vs $78.24 today
TodayAvg price
Low $75High $119
Buy99 analysts
6Bearish
30Neutral
63Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Robert W. Baird
Outperform
$120→$90
7/22/2026
Deutsche Bank
—
$110
7/20/2026
UBS
Buy
$130→$115
7/17/2026
Rosenblatt Securities
Neutral
$75
7/17/2026
UBS
Buy
$118→$85
7/17/2026
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$115→$85
7/17/2026
KGI Securities
Neutral
$75
7/17/2026
Guggenheim
Buy
$120→$75
7/17/2026
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
$90→$83
7/17/2026
Wells Fargo
Equal Weight
$105→$80
7/17/2026
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$85
7/17/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$94
7/17/2026

Netflix earnings

Management has a consistent habit of clearing the bar, beating profit expectations in seven of the last eight quarters. This suggests a predictable business that is being run with a lot of discipline.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$0.40$0.83$1.25Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jul '26nextOct '26

Netflix past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$0.79$0.80+1.3%
Revenue$12.58B$12.56B-0.2%

Key highlights

  • Advertising revenue scaling up: The company expects to roughly double its advertising revenue to approximately $3 billion in 2026, which represents about 6% of its total revenue forecast for the year. This growth is a key part of the plan to make the business more profitable while offering lower priced tiers to members.
  • Profitability goals on track: Management expects the operating margin, which is the percentage of revenue left after paying for the costs of running the business, to reach 31.5% for the full year. This would be an improvement over the 29.5% margin the company reported in 2025.
  • Member engagement remains healthy: People spent 97 billion hours watching content in the first half of the year, which is a 2% increase compared to the same time last year. This growth happened even though major global events like the Winter Olympics and the World Cup were competing for viewers' attention.
  • Live events driving signups: While live programming will only account for about 1% of total viewing hours this year, it drove six of the top 10 biggest days for new member signups over the last five years. The company plans to spend just over 5% of its total content budget on these live events to continue bringing in new subscribers.
  • Full year revenue outlook: Netflix narrowed its full year revenue guidance to a range of $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion, which would mean the business grows between 13% and 14% for the year. For the upcoming third quarter, the company expects to bring in $12.86 billion in revenue as it continues to grow its member base and adjust its pricing.

Our take: This was a steady and productive quarter that shows the business is successfully moving beyond just selling subscriptions. The projected doubling of ad revenue to $3 billion is the standout figure, proving that the new advertising tier is becoming a meaningful contributor to the bottom line. It strengthens the case that Netflix can keep growing its total earnings even as the streaming market matures.

Netflix’s next earnings date

Q3 2026
OCT
20
Expectation
EPS$0.82
Revenue$12.87B

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
Advertising Revenue
Reaching $3 billion in annual revenue by end of 2026
On track for $3B in 2026
Operating Margin
Staying above 31.5% for the full year 2026
33.4% in Q2 2026
Membership Growth
Maintaining double-digit revenue growth through new sign-ups
13.4% YoY in Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow
Generating over $9 billion in annual free cash flow
$1.53B in Q2 2026

More Netflix coverage from around the web

Ackman unveils six new investments including Netflix, Visa, Mastercard in biggest portfolio overhaul in years

Reuters · Aug 13

Netflix: The Window Before The Re-Rating

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 13

Bill Ackman once exited Netflix stake in a huff. Why he's buying the streaming giant again as well as these five stocks.

Market Watch · Aug 13

Netflix: The Market Is Underappreciating 2027 Earnings Power

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 12

Netflix Finally Cancels A Show That Actually Deserves It

Forbes · Aug 7

The Big 3: MRVL, NFLX, META

Schwab Network · Video · Aug 5

Stay on top of Netflix

Follow Netflix to get the latest and most important updates.

Follow NFLX

On this page

Full thesisFollow NFLX