PDD Holdings rose about 1 percent today, breaking a two-day losing streak, but it remains down about 9 percent over the last week. We think this is mostly a small recovery after a rough week where trade rule changes for rivals like Shein weighed on the sector.
Our view
PDD is an incredibly efficient retail machine that connects factories directly to shoppers to keep prices lower than rivals can match. If you already own it, the best move is to sit tight and let that cost advantage play out over the coming years.
Shein, a major rival to PDD's international arm Temu, reported that new tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption are hurting its growth. This exemption previously allowed low-value packages to enter the U.S. without being taxed. Documents from Shein's IPO show that these regulatory changes are making it harder to maintain the ultra-low prices that fuel its business.
This is a development to watch for PDD because Temu relies on the same shipping model. If regulators in the U.S. and Europe continue to close these tax loopholes, it could force Temu to raise prices or accept lower profits. While PDD has a very efficient supply chain, its ability to ship directly from Chinese factories to global doorsteps is the core of its international strategy.
Analysts have recently downgraded the stock following news of new European fees on cheap e-commerce parcels. While 13 of 28 analysts still rate the stock a buy, the average target of $107 suggests 16% upside from today's price.
Average target$106.50+16%vs $91.91 today
TodayAvg price
Low $80High $136
Hold28 analysts
1Bearish
14Neutral
13Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Daiwa
Hold
$80
6/23/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$89
5/28/2026
Macquarie
Neutral
$87
5/27/2026
Bernstein
Market Perform
$132→$110
5/27/2026
Morgan Stanley
—
$148→$129
5/27/2026
US Tiger Securities
Hold
$100
5/27/2026
Arete Research
Buy
$121
4/17/2026
Nomura
Neutral
$136
3/26/2026
Morgan Stanley
—
$148
1/15/2026
Loop Capital Markets
—
$170
1/6/2026
Arete Research
Neutral
$130
12/9/2025
Bernstein
Market Perform
$135
11/18/2025
PDD Holdings (Temu) earnings
The company has a mixed track record, missing expectations in three of the last five quarters. This suggests the business is becoming harder for analysts to forecast as it expands globally.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
PDD Holdings (Temu) past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$2.40
$1.38
-42.5%
Revenue
$15.92B
$15.40B
-3.3%
Key highlights
Transaction service growth: Revenue from transaction services, which covers the fees from processing sales on the platform, rose 20% to 56.3 billion RMB. This growth helped total revenue reach 106.2 billion RMB, although the 11% overall increase is a significant slowdown from earlier periods.
Shrinking profit margins: Net income fell 15% to 12.5 billion RMB as the company spent more to run its business. Costs of revenues rose 15% to 46.9 billion RMB because of higher fulfillment and payment processing fees, meaning it is becoming more expensive to deliver each order.
Supply chain spending boost: Research and development spending grew 23% to 4.4 billion RMB this quarter. Management says this is part of a plan to build out their own brand business and improve supply chains, which they identified as their core strategic priority for the next decade.
Strong cash position: The company ended the quarter with 436.1 billion RMB in cash and short term investments, which is about 63.2 billion US dollars. This gives them a massive cushion to fund their expansion even as they face higher operating costs.
Strategic spending outlook: Management stated they are prepared to invest resolutely over the long term in their supply chain capabilities. While they did not give a specific dollar range for next quarter, they confirmed they will commit significant resources to shift their business model toward first-party brands.
Our take: This was a soft quarter because the company is intentionally trading profit for a long-term shift in its business model. While growth is slowing and costs are rising, the pivot to building a first-party supply chain is a heavy lift that chips away at the immediate investment case until those new bets prove they can generate better returns.
PDD Holdings (Temu)’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
24
Expectation
EPS
$2.73
Revenue
$16.99B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
International Revenue Growth
Sustaining above 40% YoY growth for the next eight quarters
Approximately 50% YoY in Q3 2024
Consolidated Operating Margin
Staying above 20% while funding the global expansion
18.4% in Q1 2026
Active User Growth (Global)
Reaching 1.5 billion combined users within the next three years