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PGR

ProgressivePGR

$208.70
Updated Aug 13, 2026
Quality Score
4.6
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Why Progressive stock moved?

Updated Aug 13 at 11:20am ET.

$208.70
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What's happening with the stock

Progressive is up about 1 percent today, its first positive session after a slow slide that has knocked 5 percent off the price since late July. We think this is mostly the whole market moving higher today, though a report showing flat wholesale inflation helps insurers by suggesting repair costs might stabilize.

Our view

Progressive continues to grow its policy count while keeping profit margins well ahead of its peers. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let the company's data edge play out.

Read full thesis on Progressive

Latest Progressive updates

Follow Progressive to never miss an important update.

PGR
Macro & policyPositive
Aug 13

Wholesale inflation was flat in July

Wholesale prices, which measure what businesses pay for goods and services before they reach consumers, stayed flat in July. This suggests that the sharp rise in the cost of living is continuing to slow down.

For an insurer like Progressive, this is a helpful shift. When the cost of car parts and labor stops climbing rapidly, the company spends less to settle claims. Since Progressive has already raised its own prices to cover earlier inflation, stabilizing costs can lead to higher profit margins on every policy it sells.

Source: Market Watch

PGR
Analyst price updateFor the record
Aug 5

Mizuho trims its target to $236

Mizuho Securities adjusted its price target for the insurer down to $236 from $243. This is a small change of about 3 percent and remains higher than the current stock price. Analysts often make these minor tweaks after a company shares its latest monthly or quarterly results to align their models with the newest data. This move does not signal a change in the firm's overall view of the business.

Source: Mizuho Securities

PGR
Insider activityFor the record
Jul 27

CEO Tricia Griffith sells about $7.9 million in stock

Chief Executive Officer Tricia Griffith sold roughly $7.9 million worth of shares. While the dollar amount is large, executives at major companies often sell stock as part of pre-planned schedules for personal financial planning or to cover taxes on stock awards.

Because these sales are often automatic, they rarely signal a lack of confidence in the company. This sale represents only a fraction of her total stake in the insurer and does not change the long-term outlook for the business.

PGR
Analyst price updatePositive
Jul 24

Morgan Stanley raises its rating to Equal Weight

Morgan Stanley upgraded the insurer to Equal Weight, which is their way of saying the stock is now expected to perform in line with the broader market. They set a price target of $210.

This move suggests the firm sees less risk in the stock than it did before. Upgrades from major banks can sometimes draw more attention from large institutional buyers, though it does not change the underlying strength of the company's insurance operations.

Source: Morgan Stanley

PGR
Company newsFor the record
Jul 24

Investor event focused on Robinsons customer segment

The company hosted a 90-minute session detailing its Robinsons segment, which refers to customers who bundle home and auto insurance. These customers are highly valuable because they tend to stay with the company longer than those who only have a single policy. Increasing the number of these bundled households is a core part of the company's growth plan. Higher retention helps lower the cost of finding new customers, which protects profit margins over the long run.

Source: GlobeNewsWire

Progressive analyst price targets

Analysts have recently adjusted their outlooks following the company's second-quarter earnings report. While 15 of 41 analysts rate the stock a buy, most remain neutral, and the average target of $226 suggests an 8% gain from today's price.

Average target$226.17+8%vs $208.70 today
TodayAvg price
Low $198High $259
Hold41 analysts
4Bearish
22Neutral
15Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Mizuho Securities
Neutral
$243→$236
8/5/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$210
7/24/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$220→$205
7/16/2026
Wells Fargo
Underweight
$205→$198
7/16/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$230→$240
7/10/2026
Mizuho Securities
Neutral
$217→$243
7/9/2026
HSBC
Hold
$214→$221
7/6/2026
UBS
Neutral
$220→$230
6/30/2026
Wells Fargo
Underweight
$205
6/29/2026
Wells Fargo
Underweight
$222→$219
6/18/2026
RBC Capital
—
$208
5/22/2026
BMO Capital
Market Perform
$220
5/20/2026

Progressive earnings

Management has a habit of clearing the bar, beating analyst profit targets in four of the last eight quarters while maintaining steady revenue growth.

Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
$3.53$4.28$5.03Oct '24Jan '25Apr '25Jul '25Oct '25Jan '26Apr '26Jul '26nextOct '26

Progressive past earnings results

ExpectedActualSurprise
EPS$4.64$4.85+4.5%
Revenue$19.49B$21.08B+8.2%

Key highlights

  • Strong policy growth: The company grew its total policies in force by 7% to 40.1 million, and the direct auto segment led the way with a 10% increase compared to last year. This steady expansion shows the brand is successfully attracting more customers even as it manages a massive scale of over 40 million active policies.
  • Profitability remains healthy: The quarterly combined ratio, which is the percentage of premiums used to pay claims and expenses, was 87.3. While this is slightly higher than the 86.2 reported a year ago, it remains well below the company's long-term goal of staying under 96 to ensure every policy is written for a profit.
  • Investment income climbing: Investment income rose 13% to $1.9 billion for the first half of the year compared to 2025. This steady stream of cash from the company's $97.2 billion portfolio helps support the bottom line when insurance claims fluctuate.
  • One time property gain: The property business benefited from an 11.7 point favorable adjustment to its combined ratio because of a change in how the company calculates future loss reserves. This accounting shift lowered the property division's combined ratio to 65.6 for June, though management noted this specific benefit will not repeat in future months.
  • Revenue growth continuing: Net premiums written grew 5% to $21.08 billion for the quarter, and the direct auto business reached $3.24 billion in June alone. This growth represents the actual dollar value of new and renewed policies, which is the primary engine that drives future earnings.

Our take: This was a very strong quarter where Progressive grew its customer base while keeping profit margins well ahead of its targets. The 10% jump in direct auto policies is impressive for a company of this size, and it proves the competitive edge remains sharp. These results reinforce our view that the business is an elite operator in the insurance industry.

Progressive’s next earnings date

Q3 2026
OCT
14
Expectation
EPS$3.62
Revenue$22.18B
OCT
1
Dividend payday
  • Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.

Metrics we are tracking

Metric
Expectations
Status
Combined Ratio
Staying consistently below the 96% target
87.3 for Q2 2026
Policies in Force (PIF)
Growing at least 5% annually across all segments
40.09M in Q2 2026
Retention Rate
Staying stable or increasing as bundling grows
7% PIF growth in Q2 2026
Net Premiums Written
Growing above the 4% industry average
$21.08B in Q2 2026

More Progressive coverage from around the web

The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Seeking Alpha · Opinion · Aug 4

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