Simon Property Group fell about 1 percent today, its seventh straight down day, and now sits about 6 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly about mortgage rates hitting a one-year high, which makes borrowing more expensive for real estate companies.
Our view
The business is performing well and occupancy at its malls remains high, but the stock price has run up quite a bit recently. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let the next round of earnings provide more clarity.
Mortgage rates reached their highest point in over a year
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage edged up to 6.69 percent this week. While this is primarily a housing market metric, it is a signal of the higher interest rate environment that affects all real estate companies.
For a mall owner like Simon, higher rates can make it more expensive to borrow the cash needed to renovate properties or build new mixed-use projects like hotels and apartments. It can also weigh on consumer spending if shoppers are putting more of their income toward debt and housing costs.
Analyst price updatePositive
Jul 21
Piper Sandler raised its target for Simon to $285
Piper Sandler raised its price target for the stock from $230 to $285 while keeping a positive rating. This new target is about 28 percent higher than where the stock is currently trading.
The move suggests a high level of confidence that Simon's premier malls can continue to raise rents and attract high-end brands even as other parts of the retail world struggle. It stands out as one of the more optimistic views on the company compared to the average analyst target of $220.
Analysts have steadily raised their price targets throughout the summer despite a recent downgrade. Only 15 of 37 analysts recommend buying the stock, and the average target of $220 is roughly equal to the current price.
Average target$219.67-1%vs $221.83 today
Avg price
Low $194High $285
Hold37 analysts
2Bearish
20Neutral
15Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Piper Sandler
Overweight
$230→$285
7/21/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$220
7/9/2026
UBS
Neutral
$199→$222
7/9/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$208→$215
7/7/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$212→$213
6/25/2026
Truist Financial
Hold
$196→$215
6/23/2026
UBS
Neutral
$206→$220
6/18/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$205→$207
6/9/2026
Evercore ISI
In Line
$207→$208
6/8/2026
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$192→$206
5/19/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$201→$212
5/19/2026
UBS
Neutral
$189→$199
5/18/2026
Simon Property Group earnings
The company has a very consistent habit of beating analyst forecasts. Management tends to set a bar they can clear, which makes their financial targets feel reliable.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Simon Property Group past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$1.46
$1.48
+1.4%
Revenue
$1.54B
$1.76B
+13.9%
Key highlights
Tenant sales climbing: Reported sales for retailers in the company's malls reached $819 per square foot for the year ended March 31, 2026, which is an 11.8% jump from $733 a year ago. This growth shows that high-end shopping destinations remain popular with consumers even as online shopping grows.
Lease rates moving higher: The average base minimum rent rose to $61.99 per square foot, a 5.2% increase over the $58.92 reported in the same quarter last year. Higher rents help the company grow its income from existing properties without needing to add new floor space.
Occupancy remains high: Occupancy across U.S. malls and premium outlets reached 96.0% at the end of March, compared to 95.9% a year ago. Keeping nearly all available space filled gives the company more power to raise prices when leases come up for renewal.
Dividend and buybacks increased: The board raised the quarterly dividend by 7.1% to $2.25 per share and spent $175 million to buy back 965,296 shares of its own stock. These moves return a total of $3.17 in Real Estate Funds From Operations, a common measure of REIT profit, back to the business and its owners.
Full year outlook raised: Management increased its 2026 profit guidance to a range of $13.10 to $13.25 per share for Real Estate Funds From Operations, which is the money the company earns from its property business. This is a $0.05 increase at the midpoint from the previous forecast provided in February.
Our take: This was a strong quarter that proved the enduring value of top-tier physical retail. The 11.8% surge in retailer sales and the bump in full-year profit guidance show that the company's premier malls are capturing more consumer spending than ever. These results strengthen the case for owning the dominant leader in high-end retail real estate.
Simon Property Group’s next earnings date
Q2 2026
AUG
10
Expectation
EPS
$1.64
Revenue
$1.61B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Malls and Outlets Occupancy
Staying at or above 96.0% across the core domestic portfolio
96.0% as of Q1 2026
Retailer Sales per Square Foot
Growing at least 5% annually to stay ahead of inflation
$819 per sqft in Q1 2026
Average Base Minimum Rent
Increasing by more than 5.0% year-over-year during lease signings
$61.99 as of Q1 2026
Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio
Staying above 4.0x to ensure the debt load remains safe
4.6x as of Q1 2026
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