The stock rose about 1 percent today, continuing a week of quiet sideways movement, and remains about 3 percent below its July high. We think this is just ordinary movement since there was no company news and the move was small.
Our view
The company's Mexican beer brands continue to win over American drinkers, which provides a very reliable stream of cash. If you already own the stock, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let that growth play out.
The company filed its official results from the annual shareholder meeting, confirming the election of its board of directors and a vote on executive pay. These filings are a routine part of corporate governance that ensure the leadership team has the formal backing of the people who own the stock.
For a company like this, which is currently trying to fix its struggling wine and spirits business while protecting its lead in the beer market, a stable and approved board is important. It confirms that the current strategy of focusing on high-growth Mexican imports has the support of the majority of shareholders.
Barclays lowered its target price for the stock from $139 to $132, which is right where the stock is currently trading. The firm kept its neutral rating, suggesting they do not see a clear reason for the stock to move much higher or lower in the near future. This cautious view likely reflects the mixed performance between the company's two main halves. While Modelo and Corona continue to sell well, the wine and spirits division has been a drag on the total numbers. Until the company proves it has finished cleaning up that smaller side of the business, some analysts are choosing to wait and see.
U.S. World Cup exit dampens hopes for a sales boost
The U.S. team's early departure from the World Cup tournament has cooled expectations for a significant increase in beer consumption this summer. Major sporting events usually drive higher sales for brands like Modelo and Corona as fans gather at bars and parties. While this is a missed opportunity for a short-term spike in sales, it does not change the long-term health of the business. The company's growth is driven more by a permanent shift in what Americans choose to drink rather than any single three-week tournament.
Analysts recently lowered their price expectations for the stock following a wave of updates in early July. Most analysts, 25 of 46, still rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $165 suggests 25% upside.
Average target$165.20+25%vs $132.52 today
TodayAvg price
Low $132High $186
Buy46 analysts
1Bearish
20Neutral
25Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Barclays
Equal Weight
$139→$132
7/21/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$155→$150
7/2/2026
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
$183→$158
7/2/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$139
7/2/2026
Jefferies
Hold
$147
7/2/2026
BMO Capital
Outperform
$174
7/1/2026
Jefferies
Hold
$157
6/23/2026
Evercore ISI
Outperform
$170→$175
4/10/2026
Barclays
Equal Weight
$151→$170
4/10/2026
Deutsche Bank
Hold
$154→$155
4/10/2026
Needham
Buy
$180→$185
4/10/2026
UBS
Buy
$176→$186
4/10/2026
Constellation Brands earnings
The company has a very consistent habit of beating analyst profit targets, often by a wide margin. This suggests management is conservative with its forecasts and executes well.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Constellation Brands past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$3.22
$3.43
+6.5%
Revenue
$2.39B
$2.43B
+1.9%
Key highlights
Profit outlook raised: The company increased its full year reported profit forecast to a range between $11.50 and $12.20 per share, up from the previous actual result of $9.61. Management also expects to generate between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion in free cash flow, which is the cash left over after paying for operations and building new facilities.
Beer demand softening: Beer depletions, a measure of how fast products are sold from distributors to retailers, fell 0.3% this quarter compared to a 0.6% gain in the previous period. The slip was driven by a 2% decline in Modelo Especial and a more than 5% drop in Corona Extra sales, even as newer brands like Pacifico grew 21%.
Wine business rebounding: Organic wine and spirits sales grew 8% this quarter, a significant turnaround from the same time last year when the business was larger before selling off several brands. This growth was led by Kim Crawford wine and Mi Campo tequila, which saw sales to retailers rise 4% and 62% respectively.
Beer margins holding: Operating margins for the beer business, which shows the profit kept from every dollar of sales, remained steady at 39.0%. This matches the 39.1% margin from a year ago as the company used higher prices to offset increased spending on marketing and higher costs for running its business.
Cash returned to owners: Management returned over $400 million to shareholders during the quarter through a combination of dividends and buying back $324 million of its own stock. This is part of a plan to balance spending on its new brewery in Veracruz with direct payouts to investors.
Our take: This was a respectable quarter because the company managed to grow its bottom line even as its biggest beer brands showed some rare signs of slowing down. While the slight dip in beer sales is a watch point, the recovery in the wine division and the raised profit guidance suggest the business is navigating a picky consumer environment well. It reinforces the case for owning a leader with such strong pricing power.
Constellation Brands’s next earnings date
Q2 2027
OCT
5
Expectation
EPS
$3.63
Revenue
$2.55B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Beer Depletions
Growing at or above 5% annually
0.3% decrease in Q1 FY2027
Beer Operating Margin
Staying at or above 38%
39.0% in Q1 FY2027
Free Cash Flow
Reaching $2 billion or more annually
$485 million in Q1 FY2027
Wine Depletion Growth
Turning positive for four consecutive quarters
6.6% growth in Q1 FY2027
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