The stock is flat today after a week of little movement and remains less than 1 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly the market taking a breather after the company reported a 45 percent surge in monthly sales.
Our view
The company is reporting record profits and sales as the rush for AI chips shows no signs of slowing down. If you have been thinking about buying it, this is a fair price to pay for the world's most essential chipmaker.
Monthly sales jumped about 45 percent on AI chip demand
TSMC reported that its sales for July rose nearly 45 percent compared to the same month last year. The company brought in about 467.6 billion New Taiwan dollars, or roughly 14.5 billion U.S. dollars, during the month.
This growth is a clear sign that the massive spending on artificial intelligence is not slowing down. Because TSMC is the only factory capable of making the most advanced chips for companies like Nvidia and Google, its monthly sales serve as a pulse check for the entire AI industry. As long as these tech giants keep ordering high-end processors, TSMC remains the primary winner.
TSMC and Sony to spend 6 billion dollars on image sensor chips
TSMC and Sony are reportedly planning to spend about 6.3 billion dollars to jointly produce next-generation chips for image sensors. These are the specialized components that allow cameras and smartphones to capture light and create digital photos. While much of the focus on TSMC is currently on AI, this move shows the company is still deepening its roots in the smartphone and camera markets. Partnering with Sony, a leader in camera sensors, helps ensure TSMC's factories stay busy even if the hype around AI eventually cools off.
The company began restarting its Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing plant after a strong earthquake hit the region. Workers had been evacuated as a safety measure, but the gradual return to production suggests there was no major damage to the facility or its sensitive equipment. While natural disasters are a constant risk for chip factories, this quick recovery is a good sign for the company's efforts to build more chips outside of Taiwan. The Japan site is a key part of that expansion plan.
Needham raised its price target for the stock to $530, up from $480 previously. This change reflects a more optimistic view of the company's value compared to its current price of about $414. This move follows recent strong results and suggests that analysts see more room for the stock to rise as it continues to benefit from the high demand for advanced chips.
The company has committed about $200 billion to build factories in the United States since 2025. While this helps the company stay on good terms with the U.S. government, building and running these advanced plants in America is much more expensive than doing so in Taiwan.
These higher costs are starting to eat into profit margins. For a long-term owner, the trade-off is clear: the company is spending heavily to protect its access to the U.S. market, but it will likely earn less profit on every chip made in these new locations.
Analysts have steadily raised their price targets throughout the summer as demand for artificial intelligence chips continues to surge. Most analysts rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $596 suggests 42% upside from today's price.
Average target$596+42%vs $420.04 today
TodayAvg price
Low $500High $700
Strong Buy25 analysts
0Bearish
7Neutral
18Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
Needham
Buy
$480→$530
7/27/2026
D.A. Davidson
—
$450→$500
7/17/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$625→$650
7/17/2026
Susquehanna
Positive
$575→$600
7/16/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$625
6/29/2026
Susquehanna
Positive
$500→$575
6/22/2026
Jefferies
—
$700
6/16/2026
Needham
Buy
$410→$480
4/16/2026
D.A. Davidson
Buy
$450
2/12/2026
Barclays
Overweight
$380→$450
1/16/2026
Needham
Buy
$360→$410
1/15/2026
UBS
—
$290→$330
12/7/2025
TSMC earnings
The company has beaten analyst profit targets for seven straight quarters, often by a wide margin. This suggests management is consistently under-promising and then outrunning even the most bullish expectations.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
TSMC past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$3.87
$4.31
+11.4%
Revenue
$39.83B
$39.36B
-1.2%
Key highlights
Profitability hitting new heights: Gross margin, which measures the profit left after manufacturing costs, reached 67.7% this quarter. This is a significant jump from 59.0% reported in late 2024 and sits well above the company's long term floor of 53%.
Cutting edge technology dominance: The company's most advanced chips, including 7 nanometer and newer, now make up 77% of total wafer revenue. This shift toward the newest technology is a positive sign for owners because these high end chips generally carry higher prices and better profits.
Next generation chips appearing: The newest 2 nanometer technology already accounted for 3% of revenue this quarter as it begins its steep production ramp up. This early contribution shows that customers are moving quickly to the latest generation of chips to power their most advanced devices.
Strategic production target reached: Revenue from 3 nanometer chips climbed to 30% of total wafer sales this quarter. This meets the company's goal to have this specific technology reach nearly a third of the business by the end of the 2025 fiscal year.
Bullish third quarter outlook: Management expects third quarter revenue to reach between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion. If they hit the middle of that range, it would represent growth of roughly 12% from the current quarter, driven by strong demand for their newest process technologies.
Our take: This was an exceptionally strong quarter that proves the company is widening its lead in the global chip market. Profit margins are expanding rapidly even as they roll out expensive new technologies, which strengthens our confidence in the company's long term earning power.
TSMC’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
15
Expectation
EPS
$4.45
Revenue
$44.98B
SEP
16
Dividend payday
Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
3nm Revenue Mix
Reaching 30% of total wafer revenue by end of FY2025
30% in Q2 2026
HPC Platform Growth
Maintaining above 20% annual growth for the next three years
58% YoY growth in FY2024
Gross Margin
Staying above the 53% long-term floor despite global expansion
67.7% in Q2 2026
Wafer Shipments
Growing total 12-inch equivalent wafers by 5% to 8% annually