The stock fell about 1 percent today, its sixth straight day of losses, and is now 12 percent below its July high. We think this is mostly a continuation of the slide that started after earnings, as the whole market also drifted lower today.
Our view
Verisk owns the essential data that insurers need to price their policies, which makes its revenue very predictable. If you already own it, there is nothing to do here but sit tight and let the steady growth in subscriptions play out.
Verisk’s CargoNet unit reported that cargo theft incidents dropped 26 percent in the second quarter compared to last year. However, the total value of losses more than doubled to $304 million as thieves targeted high-value items like metals and technology. This data is exactly why insurers pay for Verisk’s services. By tracking these sophisticated theft patterns, Verisk provides the proprietary data that insurance companies need to price their policies accurately and manage risk in the shipping industry.
Verisk estimated Japan earthquake losses up to $2.1 billion
Verisk’s risk modeling team estimated that the Kumamoto earthquake in Japan will result in insured losses between $1.4 billion and $2.1 billion. These figures represent the total amount insurance companies are expected to pay out for claims. Providing these rapid estimates reinforces Verisk’s role as the essential data provider for the global insurance market. While these losses affect the insurance companies themselves, Verisk’s business remains steady because it earns its revenue from the subscriptions insurers pay to access these analytical tools.
UBS raised its price target for Verisk to $228, up from $190, while keeping a neutral rating. This 20 percent increase suggests the firm sees more value in the stock after the recent earnings report.
The higher target reflects confidence in Verisk’s ability to grow its core subscription revenue. Even with a neutral rating, which means the analyst isn't yet telling people to rush in and buy, the significant target hike shows the business is performing better than they previously expected.
Baird raised its price target to $247 from $230 after Verisk reported its second-quarter earnings. The firm maintains a positive outlook on the stock. This adjustment is a routine response to the company meeting its financial goals. It signals that the analyst believes the company’s long-term path to higher profits remains on track.
Verisk acquired McKenzie Intelligence Services, a firm that uses satellite and aerial imagery to assess property damage in real time after catastrophes or conflicts. This technology helps insurance companies make faster decisions on claims after a major event.
This deal fits perfectly into Verisk’s strategy of adding new layers of technology to its existing data. By providing faster, more accurate damage assessments, Verisk makes its platform even more essential to the daily operations of global insurers.
Management has a perfect record of clearing the bar, beating analyst profit targets for eight straight quarters. This suggests they are disciplined about setting expectations they know they can meet.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Verisk Analytics past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$1.93
$1.98
+2.6%
Revenue
$804M
$806M
+0.3%
Key highlights
Organic revenue accelerating: Organic revenue, which excludes the impact of recent business deals and currency shifts, grew 5.8% this quarter. This is a step up from the 4.7% growth seen in the previous quarter and shows the business is moving closer to its long-term targets.
Subscription growth remains strong: Subscription revenue grew 8.0% on an organic constant currency basis, meaning growth excluding currency changes and business sales. These recurring payments are vital because they show how deeply embedded the company's data tools are in the daily operations of insurance customers.
Profitability holding steady: Adjusted EBITDA margin, a measure of core operating profitability, was 57.5% for the quarter. This is nearly identical to the 57.6% from a year ago, as the company managed to offset higher legal fees with better pricing and cost discipline.
Aggressive share repurchases: The company spent $1.9 billion on share repurchases during the first half of the year, which helped reduce the total number of shares by approximately 8.5 million. Reducing the share count helps boost earnings per share for the remaining owners over the long run.
Cash flow surge: Free cash flow, which is the cash left over after paying for operations and equipment, jumped 57.9% to $298 million. While some of this was due to the timing of tax and vendor payments, it gave management the room to pay $65.4 million in dividends this quarter.
Full year outlook maintained: Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, expecting total revenue between $3,190 million and $3,240 million. They also expect to finish the year with an adjusted EBITDA margin, a key measure of efficiency, between 56.0% and 56.5%.
Our take: This was a solid quarter defined by a welcome recovery in organic growth. We were looking for revenue to pick up speed after a slower start to the year, and the 5.8% organic growth shows the business is back on the right track. The combination of steady profit margins and heavy share buybacks continues to strengthen the long-term case for owners.
Verisk Analytics’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
NOV
4
Expectation
EPS
$1.92
Revenue
$806M
SEP
15
Dividend payday
Own the stock before this date to get the next dividend payment.
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Organic Revenue Growth
Staying between 6% and 8% annually
5.8% in Q2 2026
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Maintaining or exceeding 56.5% by year-end
57.5% in Q2 2026
Subscription Revenue Mix
Staying above 80% of total revenue
81% as of FY2025
Return on Invested Capital
ROIC remaining above 25%
28.9% as of Q1 2026
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