The stock fell about 1 percent today, its second straight down day, and has drifted about 5 percent lower over the last month. We think this is mostly ordinary movement as the stock settles after its post-earnings jump in late July.
Our view
The company is successfully raising prices and using automation to squeeze more profit out of every ton of waste. If you've been thinking about buying it, this recent dip makes it a fair price to pay.
Wholesale prices, which track what businesses pay for goods and services before they reach consumers, were flat in July. This suggests that the cost of things like fuel and equipment parts is stabilizing after a long period of rapid increases.
For a business like this, which operates a massive fleet of trucks and heavy machinery, lower inflation on its own costs is a major win. The company has been successfully raising the prices it charges customers to stay ahead of inflation. If its own costs stop rising while those price hikes stay in place, it can keep more profit from every trash pickup.
Profit margins expand as cash flow rises 12 percent
Waste Management reported a strong second quarter, with profit margins reaching about 31 percent. While revenue of $6.68 billion was slightly lower than what analysts expected, the company is earning more profit on every dollar of sales. This efficiency helped generate nearly 12 percent more cash from operations than the same time last year.
The company finished four sustainability projects during the quarter, which involve turning landfill gas into renewable energy and automating recycling centers. These projects are a key part of the plan to grow profits without relying solely on picking up more trash. Management returned over $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, showing they remain focused on sending cash back to owners while investing in these new facilities.
Analysts maintained their positive outlook following the company's recent quarterly earnings report. Most analysts, 20 of 35, rate the stock a buy, and the average target of $244 suggests a 9% gain from the current price.
Average target$244+9%vs $224.81 today
TodayAvg price
Low $244High $244
Buy35 analysts
0Bearish
15Neutral
20Bullish
FirmRatingPrice TargetDate
CIBC
Outperform
$244
7/7/2026
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$263→$264
1/30/2026
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$250
1/21/2026
UBS
Buy
$260
1/9/2026
Bernstein
Outperform
$260
1/5/2026
Goldman Sachs
Buy
$256
11/24/2025
Wells Fargo
Overweight
$238
11/13/2025
Robert W. Baird
Outperform
$242
11/4/2025
Truist Financial
—
$260
10/29/2025
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$254
10/29/2025
Oppenheimer
Outperform
$262
10/29/2025
Scotiabank
Sector Perform
$275→$264
10/10/2025
Waste Management earnings
Management has a steady habit of clearing the bars set for them, beating profit expectations in five of the last eight quarters while growing revenue at a consistent clip.
Earnings history
EstimateBeatMiss
Waste Management past earnings results
Expected
Actual
Surprise
EPS
$1.98
$2.02
+2.0%
Revenue
$6.71B
$6.68B
-0.4%
Key highlights
Profitability outlook raised: Management raised its full year guidance for adjusted operating EBITDA margin, which is the percentage of revenue left after core operating costs, to a range of 31.0% to 31.2%. This increase of 20 basis points comes even as the company lowered its 2026 revenue forecast to between $26.275 billion and $26.475 billion due to lower waste volumes.
Core pricing strength: Core price growth remained high at 5.7%, which helped drive a 4.0% increase in total revenue even as actual waste volumes fell. This ability to raise prices faster than inflation is essential for protecting profits while the company intentionally sheds lower margin residential contracts.
Sustainability projects scaling: Adjusted operating EBITDA in the recycling and renewable energy segments jumped 32.5% to $40 million compared to the same period last year. This growth was fueled by the completion of four new facilities this quarter, including three renewable natural gas plants that add 3.5 million units of annual fuel production.
Efficiency gains expanding margins: Adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded by 40 basis points to 30.9% as the company used automation to control costs. This improvement is notable because it overcame a 60 basis point drag from last year's wildfire cleanup work that did not repeat this quarter.
Free cash flow surge: Free cash flow, the money left after all business expenses and equipment purchases, rose 34.5% to $1.10 billion for the quarter. This increased cash generation supported the return of $1.04 billion to shareholders through dividends and $659 million in stock buybacks.
Our take: This was a strong quarter that proved the business can grow profits even when revenue slows. By using technology to lower costs and successfully raising prices on core customers, management protected its margins despite lower trash volumes. The healthy 34.5% jump in cash flow reinforces the long term case for this steady dividend payer.
Waste Management’s next earnings date
Q3 2026
OCT
26
Expectation
EPS
$2.18
Revenue
$6.80B
Metrics we are tracking
Metric
Expectations
Status
Core Price Growth
Staying above 5.0% annually to lead inflation
5.7% in Q2 2026
Free Cash Flow
Reaching $3.0B annually as sustainability projects come online
$2.02B for first half 2026
Adjusted Operating EBITDA Margin
Sustaining above 29% as automation benefits materialize
30.9% in Q2 2026
Renewable Energy EBITDA
Growing at double-digit rates as new RNG plants open
34.0% growth in Q2 2026
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